The market served up a pretty contradictory picture today đ€
BTC climbed back above $80,000
and spent the whole day hovering around that level.
But on the other hand,
on CME FedWatch,
the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike on December 9
have already climbed to 81.5%.
On one side, crypto prices are rebounding;
on the other, bets on a rate hike keep getting heavier.
Those two things shouldnât be happening at the same time, in theory.
At the October 28 policy meeting,
the Fed held rates steady at 3.75%â4%.
But in the 10â2 vote,
Cook and Hammack
both voted outright for a rate hike.
This isnât just hawkish talk.
Voting members have already started taking action.
Whatâs interesting is
that BTCâs rebound from $75,600
was driven by short liquidations and ETF inflows,
not by the ârate cuts are comingâ narrative.
Put simply,
the market is now betting that two things can be true at once:
crypto prices can hold steady,
and the Fed can still hike once more.
The biggest risk with this contradiction is one variable:
tomorrow nightâs nonfarm payrolls report.
If the jobs data comes in too hot,
hike odds could climb even higher,
and the $80,000 level will face another test.
On the flip side,
if the data comes in soft,
that 81.5% figure could drop quickly,
giving the rebound a second wind.
Iâm not trying to guess the direction right now.
Iâm watching just two things:
how FedWatch shifts after the jobs report,
and whether BTC can hold $80,000.
What do you thinkâwill the Fed pull the trigger in December?
$BTC $ETH
#æŻçčćž #ćžćșè§ćŻ #Federal Reserve
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.
BTC climbed back above $80,000
and spent the whole day hovering around that level.
But on the other hand,
on CME FedWatch,
the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike on December 9
have already climbed to 81.5%.
On one side, crypto prices are rebounding;
on the other, bets on a rate hike keep getting heavier.
Those two things shouldnât be happening at the same time, in theory.
At the October 28 policy meeting,
the Fed held rates steady at 3.75%â4%.
But in the 10â2 vote,
Cook and Hammack
both voted outright for a rate hike.
This isnât just hawkish talk.
Voting members have already started taking action.
Whatâs interesting is
that BTCâs rebound from $75,600
was driven by short liquidations and ETF inflows,
not by the ârate cuts are comingâ narrative.
Put simply,
the market is now betting that two things can be true at once:
crypto prices can hold steady,
and the Fed can still hike once more.
The biggest risk with this contradiction is one variable:
tomorrow nightâs nonfarm payrolls report.
If the jobs data comes in too hot,
hike odds could climb even higher,
and the $80,000 level will face another test.
On the flip side,
if the data comes in soft,
that 81.5% figure could drop quickly,
giving the rebound a second wind.
Iâm not trying to guess the direction right now.
Iâm watching just two things:
how FedWatch shifts after the jobs report,
and whether BTC can hold $80,000.
What do you thinkâwill the Fed pull the trigger in December?
$BTC $ETH
#æŻçčćž #ćžćșè§ćŻ #Federal Reserve
This is not investment advice. DYOR; trading involves risk.