Hi everyone. Over the past few days, many people have supported and questioned me. Either way, thank you all for your attention and comments.
From yesterday’s account high to today’s account low, I had a drawdown of over 1 million RMB (peak-to-trough equity drawdown; most of it was unrealized gains given back. My net realized loss was much smaller, and I closed all positions this morning, admitting I was wrong). I thought about it all night and barely slept. While the market is quiet, I’d like to share a few reflections.
1. My view of the market remains unchanged: the bear market isn’t over, and we’ll see significantly lower lows.
Yesterday, the low was 75,600. It hit the support level I’d drawn in advance almost exactly, then bounced—but that isn’t enough to call it the bottom of this cycle. We haven’t seen the panic, the basing process, or the liquidity created by a false breakdown. I still think 75,600 will break, with the price heading to 60,000 or even lower.
Invalidation: If the daily chart breaks above 87,000 and makes a new high, I’ll stop out of all my shorts, publicly admit I was wrong, and stop being bearish. There’s nothing wrong with being bearish; what’s scary is not knowing where you went wrong.
2. I’m bearish in the medium to long term, but I won’t short at 80,400.
This is a middle-of-the-range level, and price has found support above it. There may be another move up. For now, I’m looking at 82,000–84,000, with 84,800 as the extreme. That’s where I’ll look to short again, possibly with a large position.
3. This time, the mistake was in my strategy structure, not my directional view.
I could see most of the support and resistance levels during this drop, but in an attempt to catch a big, sustained move, I chose to take a large position and keep adding to it, holding on without letting go. As a result, I gave back all my unrealized gains, and my stop was hit at the worst possible level.
4. So I’ll adjust my strategy going forward: I’ll set aside part of my position specifically for medium- and short-term trades around support and resistance, instead of relying on only one approach—large swing trades.
I’ve opened a new lead-trading account (signal copy trading doesn’t support USDC, so followers won’t be able to copy the trades).
Starting with 10,000 U, the target is 100x. With my previous copy-trading account, I grew 1,000 U to 10,000 U—a 10x return. Unfortunately, one bad call led to a 90% drawdown, and in the end I only walked away with my original principal. I’m giving it another try.
Here are the rules upfront: the lead account will only take short-term trades, take profits promptly, and won’t blindly chase big swing-trade gains.
You can keep an eye on me going forward and see whether I go against what I’ve written today.
One last thing: copy trading is high-risk. If you decide to participate, be prepared for a 70% loss.
Wishing you all success.
From yesterday’s account high to today’s account low, I had a drawdown of over 1 million RMB (peak-to-trough equity drawdown; most of it was unrealized gains given back. My net realized loss was much smaller, and I closed all positions this morning, admitting I was wrong). I thought about it all night and barely slept. While the market is quiet, I’d like to share a few reflections.
1. My view of the market remains unchanged: the bear market isn’t over, and we’ll see significantly lower lows.
Yesterday, the low was 75,600. It hit the support level I’d drawn in advance almost exactly, then bounced—but that isn’t enough to call it the bottom of this cycle. We haven’t seen the panic, the basing process, or the liquidity created by a false breakdown. I still think 75,600 will break, with the price heading to 60,000 or even lower.
Invalidation: If the daily chart breaks above 87,000 and makes a new high, I’ll stop out of all my shorts, publicly admit I was wrong, and stop being bearish. There’s nothing wrong with being bearish; what’s scary is not knowing where you went wrong.
2. I’m bearish in the medium to long term, but I won’t short at 80,400.
This is a middle-of-the-range level, and price has found support above it. There may be another move up. For now, I’m looking at 82,000–84,000, with 84,800 as the extreme. That’s where I’ll look to short again, possibly with a large position.
3. This time, the mistake was in my strategy structure, not my directional view.
I could see most of the support and resistance levels during this drop, but in an attempt to catch a big, sustained move, I chose to take a large position and keep adding to it, holding on without letting go. As a result, I gave back all my unrealized gains, and my stop was hit at the worst possible level.
4. So I’ll adjust my strategy going forward: I’ll set aside part of my position specifically for medium- and short-term trades around support and resistance, instead of relying on only one approach—large swing trades.
I’ve opened a new lead-trading account (signal copy trading doesn’t support USDC, so followers won’t be able to copy the trades).
Starting with 10,000 U, the target is 100x. With my previous copy-trading account, I grew 1,000 U to 10,000 U—a 10x return. Unfortunately, one bad call led to a 90% drawdown, and in the end I only walked away with my original principal. I’m giving it another try.
Here are the rules upfront: the lead account will only take short-term trades, take profits promptly, and won’t blindly chase big swing-trade gains.
You can keep an eye on me going forward and see whether I go against what I’ve written today.
One last thing: copy trading is high-risk. If you decide to participate, be prepared for a 70% loss.
Wishing you all success.