The 22:00 hourly candle saw about $1.5 billion in volume, while open interest fell by only a few thousand ETH. $ETH perpetuals climbed straight from the 2,225 low at 11:00 on 11/4 to last night’s 23:00 peak of 2,449.9. The price is now around 2,430, up about 7.8% over the past day, with futures volume around $12.9 billion. During the two-hour short squeeze (about $1.52 billion at 22:00 and $2.87 billion at 23:00), the price shot up, but open interest only slipped from around 2.367 million ETH to 2.359 million—barely budging. It then stayed pinned near 2.366 million for more than ten hours, without any meaningful new longs entering.
Retail accounts net long were still around 72.8% yesterday at noon, and have only eased to about 65.3% now—the crowded positioning hasn’t fully cleared. Large traders’ long positions fell from around 62% to 59%, also only a slight easing. The funding rate turned to about -0.0027% at 8:00 this morning, then just now returned to near zero. The taker buy/sell ratio leaned toward buyers during those two squeeze hours, but this morning it moved back and forth around 1.0. The mechanics are simple: this leg was driven by short covering pushing the price up, not by fresh long positions building a new plateau.
The 1-hour RSI is around 70, the 12-period moving average is around 2,410, the Keltner upper band is around 2,440, and the Bollinger midline is around 2,385. The current price is grinding just outside the Keltner upper band, with the 12-period moving average still below it.
I’m treating this move around 2,430 as spike noise following short covering, not as a new base. Until open interest expands back above 2.42 million ETH and retail longs ease back to 60%, upside is capped first by the Keltner upper band at 2,440. If the price loses the 2,410 12-period moving average, look back toward the midline around 2,385.
$ETH #合约数据 #Open Interest
Retail accounts net long were still around 72.8% yesterday at noon, and have only eased to about 65.3% now—the crowded positioning hasn’t fully cleared. Large traders’ long positions fell from around 62% to 59%, also only a slight easing. The funding rate turned to about -0.0027% at 8:00 this morning, then just now returned to near zero. The taker buy/sell ratio leaned toward buyers during those two squeeze hours, but this morning it moved back and forth around 1.0. The mechanics are simple: this leg was driven by short covering pushing the price up, not by fresh long positions building a new plateau.
The 1-hour RSI is around 70, the 12-period moving average is around 2,410, the Keltner upper band is around 2,440, and the Bollinger midline is around 2,385. The current price is grinding just outside the Keltner upper band, with the 12-period moving average still below it.
I’m treating this move around 2,430 as spike noise following short covering, not as a new base. Until open interest expands back above 2.42 million ETH and retail longs ease back to 60%, upside is capped first by the Keltner upper band at 2,440. If the price loses the 2,410 12-period moving average, look back toward the midline around 2,385.
$ETH #合约数据 #Open Interest
