Two of the biggest losers in the top 100—one is $TRUMP
TRUMP fell 18% today, while trading volume surged. Its average volume over the past three trading days was 2.8 times the average for the previous 20 days.
This wave of selling was triggered in Washington. After the midterm election results came in, Trump-linked tokens were sold off together.
I think it still has further to fall. The decline itself isn’t the reason: the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, daily candles have closed down for several sessions in a row, and the rebound hasn’t even touched the lower band.
People lining up to short are willing to pay this cost; short positions are crowded, and traders profit from price differences but pay for the time they hold. If the price turns around, they could all rush for the exits at once.
Open interest is only $16 million, so leveraged positions aren’t large. At this scale, negative funding rates aren’t enough to support the idea of a “short squeeze.” It looks more like there are no spot buyers, leaving perpetual futures to attract traders by trading at a discount.
The volatility indicators are giving a clearer signal today. ATR is holding at a high level, and Bollinger Band width is also near the upper end of its recent range—and expanding, not narrowing. Breakouts after the bands narrow are often false moves; when the bands are opening up and price is moving down, the decline usually isn’t over.
Another change on the news front: Democrats won both the House and Senate, so Trump’s crypto agenda will face a new group of reviewers, and World Liberty’s transactions will also be scrutinized. This kind of discount won’t be fully priced in within a day.
Watch 1.21 below. It’s the low for the past 30 days and also sits at the very bottom of this year’s range.
#TRUMP
TRUMP fell 18% today, while trading volume surged. Its average volume over the past three trading days was 2.8 times the average for the previous 20 days.
This wave of selling was triggered in Washington. After the midterm election results came in, Trump-linked tokens were sold off together.
I think it still has further to fall. The decline itself isn’t the reason: the price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band, daily candles have closed down for several sessions in a row, and the rebound hasn’t even touched the lower band.
People lining up to short are willing to pay this cost; short positions are crowded, and traders profit from price differences but pay for the time they hold. If the price turns around, they could all rush for the exits at once.
Open interest is only $16 million, so leveraged positions aren’t large. At this scale, negative funding rates aren’t enough to support the idea of a “short squeeze.” It looks more like there are no spot buyers, leaving perpetual futures to attract traders by trading at a discount.
The volatility indicators are giving a clearer signal today. ATR is holding at a high level, and Bollinger Band width is also near the upper end of its recent range—and expanding, not narrowing. Breakouts after the bands narrow are often false moves; when the bands are opening up and price is moving down, the decline usually isn’t over.
Another change on the news front: Democrats won both the House and Senate, so Trump’s crypto agenda will face a new group of reviewers, and World Liberty’s transactions will also be scrutinized. This kind of discount won’t be fully priced in within a day.
Watch 1.21 below. It’s the low for the past 30 days and also sits at the very bottom of this year’s range.
#TRUMP