Everyone is focused on who wins the US election, while the crypto market is quietly showing something else: political tokens are falling, but most of the market is rising.
The facts: More than 80 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday (CoinMarketCap data, Nov. 4, 2026), while the official TRUMP token fell about 21% in 24 hours—below every daily close since its launch in January 2025, to around $1.25. WLFI hit a record low, about 90% below its September 2025 peak. Polymarket puts the odds of US crypto market structure legislation passing in 2026 at around 6%.
My take: This is what Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan calls a sign of maturity—in a post on X, he wrote that crypto is showing “remarkable signs of maturity,” because assets whose value depends on a single political outcome are being priced separately from the market’s backbone. His additional argument: recent BTC drawdowns have averaged around 50%, compared with historical peaks of around 80%. I partly agree: this decoupling is real and healthy, but one quiet day doesn’t mean a new regime—BTC is around $80,080 this morning, and the market is still waiting for its next catalyst.
What I’m watching next: whether this decoupling holds as the fate of the market structure bill becomes clearer, whether TRUMP and WLFI find a floor, and the two nearest macro catalysts—the Bank of England decision tonight at 7:00 PM WIB and the US jobs report on Friday.
What do you think: is the decoupling of political tokens from the broader market a sign that crypto has matured—or just a one-day pause before the market starts moving in lockstep again?
This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.
#PasarKripto #PemiluAS $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI
The facts: More than 80 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies rose on Wednesday (CoinMarketCap data, Nov. 4, 2026), while the official TRUMP token fell about 21% in 24 hours—below every daily close since its launch in January 2025, to around $1.25. WLFI hit a record low, about 90% below its September 2025 peak. Polymarket puts the odds of US crypto market structure legislation passing in 2026 at around 6%.
My take: This is what Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan calls a sign of maturity—in a post on X, he wrote that crypto is showing “remarkable signs of maturity,” because assets whose value depends on a single political outcome are being priced separately from the market’s backbone. His additional argument: recent BTC drawdowns have averaged around 50%, compared with historical peaks of around 80%. I partly agree: this decoupling is real and healthy, but one quiet day doesn’t mean a new regime—BTC is around $80,080 this morning, and the market is still waiting for its next catalyst.
What I’m watching next: whether this decoupling holds as the fate of the market structure bill becomes clearer, whether TRUMP and WLFI find a floor, and the two nearest macro catalysts—the Bank of England decision tonight at 7:00 PM WIB and the US jobs report on Friday.
What do you think: is the decoupling of political tokens from the broader market a sign that crypto has matured—or just a one-day pause before the market starts moving in lockstep again?
This is my analysis, not financial advice—always DYOR.
#PasarKripto #PemiluAS $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI