The rally feels less political, more structural — $SPX and $NDX both up 1.5%, and the market's remembering there's an economy beyond just semis.
Companies like $UBER, $GOOGL, $AMZN are catching bids again. The bottleneck trade — lasers, substrates, HBM, packaging — delivered monster earnings because supply/demand was tight. But that's a trade, not a forever thesis. When those imbalances normalize, the multiple compresses fast.
The semi selloff feels a bit overdone in the near term, but the rotation makes sense: money's moving toward companies with durable growth that don't live or die by DRAM spot prices or GPU lead times. Those names win regardless of who's in office or which foundry node ships next quarter.
The upstream bottleneck story was real — it just had an expiration date. Now the market's pricing in the companies that don't need every nut and bolt to work perfectly.
Companies like $UBER, $GOOGL, $AMZN are catching bids again. The bottleneck trade — lasers, substrates, HBM, packaging — delivered monster earnings because supply/demand was tight. But that's a trade, not a forever thesis. When those imbalances normalize, the multiple compresses fast.
The semi selloff feels a bit overdone in the near term, but the rotation makes sense: money's moving toward companies with durable growth that don't live or die by DRAM spot prices or GPU lead times. Those names win regardless of who's in office or which foundry node ships next quarter.
The upstream bottleneck story was real — it just had an expiration date. Now the market's pricing in the companies that don't need every nut and bolt to work perfectly.