Vance just threw the brakes on: "We deserved to lose. The war was the major reason. I understand why Republicans are upset. To the people who told us 'I told you so' — you were right."

That's not hedging. That's a full retreat from the Iran war posture. When a sitting VP candidate publicly concedes the base was right to oppose escalation, it's a signal the political cost got too high. Markets hate policy chaos, but they hate unwinnable wars more — this kind of pivot usually precedes a risk-on rotation as defense premium bleeds out and growth/tech reclaims attention. Watch if this softens oil vol and flips sentiment back toward secular winners like AI infrastructure plays.