# On-chain Metric Analysis
BTC: Standardized MVRV Bands (4Y Rolling Window)
Calibrate MVRV using a four-year rolling mean and standard deviation to compare valuation pressure, support tests, and bubble conditions across cycles. Four-year rolling standardization puts BTC cycles of different maturities on the same scale for comparison: the mean and population standard deviation are calculated from the most recent 1,460 daily observations. The Z-score shows how many standard deviations the current MVRV is from its own four-year mean, reducing cross-cycle distortions caused by bull-market peaks structurally declining as market capitalization expands.
Current Status · Undervalued Watch Zone
Current MVRV is 1.438, with a Z-score of -0.65 (approximately -0.056 over 7 days), remaining in the undervalued watch zone below the four-year mean. The 4Y mean / standard deviation is 1.742 / 0.467; -1σ / +1σ are 1.275 / 2.210, and the distance to -1σ support is approximately +0.164. BTC reference price is approximately $78,532; 7-day / 30-day average MVRV is approximately 1.445 / 1.507. On-chain date: 2026-11-03.
Percentile reference: -1σ (1.275), extreme undervaluation zone; -0.5σ (1.508), undervalued watch zone; 4Y mean (1.742), cycle average; +0.5σ (1.976), overvaluation watch zone; +1σ (2.210), overvaluation warning zone. When MVRV falls below -1σ, the market enters a statistically extreme zone relative to its own past four years. In 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, deep capitulation, several weeks spent near this band, or a rapid V-shaped recovery occurred around these levels. However, touching the band does not in itself confirm an absolute bottom. When the Z-score rises from extreme negative values back between -1 and +1, it usually indicates that valuation pressure has eased and returned to a normal range. Next, watch whether MVRV can reclaim its four-year mean, and whether spot demand, liquidity, and price structure improve in tandem. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More Curated On-chain Cycle Metrics
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$BTC
BTC: Standardized MVRV Bands (4Y Rolling Window)
Calibrate MVRV using a four-year rolling mean and standard deviation to compare valuation pressure, support tests, and bubble conditions across cycles. Four-year rolling standardization puts BTC cycles of different maturities on the same scale for comparison: the mean and population standard deviation are calculated from the most recent 1,460 daily observations. The Z-score shows how many standard deviations the current MVRV is from its own four-year mean, reducing cross-cycle distortions caused by bull-market peaks structurally declining as market capitalization expands.
Current Status · Undervalued Watch Zone
Current MVRV is 1.438, with a Z-score of -0.65 (approximately -0.056 over 7 days), remaining in the undervalued watch zone below the four-year mean. The 4Y mean / standard deviation is 1.742 / 0.467; -1σ / +1σ are 1.275 / 2.210, and the distance to -1σ support is approximately +0.164. BTC reference price is approximately $78,532; 7-day / 30-day average MVRV is approximately 1.445 / 1.507. On-chain date: 2026-11-03.
Percentile reference: -1σ (1.275), extreme undervaluation zone; -0.5σ (1.508), undervalued watch zone; 4Y mean (1.742), cycle average; +0.5σ (1.976), overvaluation watch zone; +1σ (2.210), overvaluation warning zone. When MVRV falls below -1σ, the market enters a statistically extreme zone relative to its own past four years. In 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, deep capitulation, several weeks spent near this band, or a rapid V-shaped recovery occurred around these levels. However, touching the band does not in itself confirm an absolute bottom. When the Z-score rises from extreme negative values back between -1 and +1, it usually indicates that valuation pressure has eased and returned to a normal range. Next, watch whether MVRV can reclaim its four-year mean, and whether spot demand, liquidity, and price structure improve in tandem. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More Curated On-chain Cycle Metrics
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
