ADP just came out an hour ago tonight: private-sector employment added 86,000 jobs in October, beating expectations of 69,000. September was also revised down from 90,000 to 86,000. Services accounted for 82,000 of the gains, but professional and business services have now fallen for three straight months, shedding another 27,000 jobs.
My view is clear: this data is only half the picture. ADP often doesn’t match Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, so declaring the job market fine based on a single upside surprise is jumping the gun.
Which side are you on: A) The job market held up, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will probably be solid too, and risk assets will keep grinding higher; B) Don’t be fooled by ADP—the ongoing decline in white-collar jobs is the real crack, and Friday is the real test?
$SPX
My view is clear: this data is only half the picture. ADP often doesn’t match Friday’s nonfarm payrolls, so declaring the job market fine based on a single upside surprise is jumping the gun.
Which side are you on: A) The job market held up, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will probably be solid too, and risk assets will keep grinding higher; B) Don’t be fooled by ADP—the ongoing decline in white-collar jobs is the real crack, and Friday is the real test?
$SPX
