On election night, U.S. stock futures plunged before turning higher, while gold reclaimed $4,000 overnight—the market acted out the full arc from “fear” to “coming around” in a single night.
First, the facts. In the early hours of Wednesday, U.S. Eastern Time, preliminary results showed Democrats sweeping Congress. Nasdaq 100 futures briefly fell more than 2%, S&P 500 futures dropped about 1.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped about 0.8%. But by daylight, the mood had completely changed: after NBC News projected that Democrats had also won the House, futures turned higher across the board. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed around 1.3%.
Safe-haven assets moved even more decisively. Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,016.01, while December gold futures climbed to $4,026.90. Silver jumped about 4% to around $52. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.54% to 101.17, a five-week low; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated to around 4.90% from Tuesday’s close of 4.95%. Bitcoin hovered below $78,000.
Why the drop, then the rally? Put simply, futures are a “rehearsal” for the market before it opens, reflecting the first reaction of overnight money. That first reaction was fear: with Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, markets worried that the AI boom could hit headwinds, taxes could rise, and regulation could tighten. Tech stocks took the brunt, sending Nasdaq 100 futures down the most. But after investors took a breath and ran the numbers, they realized that a divided government—a Republican president and a Democratic Congress—means legislative gridlock, making it difficult to pass any radical policies. Add a weaker dollar and falling yields, and investors came back in to buy the dip, turning futures higher. What investors feared was uncertainty; what lifted markets was the idea that “gridlock is actually more predictable.”
Earnings are also giving the AI bulls something to cheer about. Arista Networks reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up 58.5% year over year and its fastest growth since going public. That was nearly $360 million above its own $3.3 billion guidance. It forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion, and expects 2027 revenue to grow 38%–40% to about $18.5 billion, with AI networking revenue doubling to around $7 billion. Its shares rose about 9.5% after hours to around $186. Advanced Micro Devices also reported third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45% year over year, with data center revenue nearly doubling. Orders for AI infrastructure haven’t dried up—the market is simply repricing valuations.
But don’t be fooled by the overnight turnaround. First, half the support behind this gold rally comes from a weaker dollar and falling yields, while the CME FedWatch Tool still shows the probability of a December rate hike near 80%. Rate-hike expectations haven’t budged, so gold’s rally still lacks the backing of monetary policy. Second, the real test comes Friday, November 6, when the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is released. Strong data could push the dollar and rate-hike expectations back up together. Third, remember the warning from Goldman Sachs traders: 60% of S&P 500 constituents have already entered bear-market territory. The index turning higher doesn’t mean every stock is back on its feet; in this rally, only a few are rising.
Keep an eye on three levels: if gold holds above $4,000, the next steps up are $4,050–$4,115; if it falls below $3,920, this election rally will have been a one-day wonder. Until Friday’s jobs report, treat every move in futures as noise. The divided-government script has only just begun—the real drama is yet to come.
#美股 #Gold
First, the facts. In the early hours of Wednesday, U.S. Eastern Time, preliminary results showed Democrats sweeping Congress. Nasdaq 100 futures briefly fell more than 2%, S&P 500 futures dropped about 1.2%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped about 0.8%. But by daylight, the mood had completely changed: after NBC News projected that Democrats had also won the House, futures turned higher across the board. S&P 500 futures rose about 0.9%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained about 0.8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed around 1.3%.
Safe-haven assets moved even more decisively. Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,016.01, while December gold futures climbed to $4,026.90. Silver jumped about 4% to around $52. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.54% to 101.17, a five-week low; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield retreated to around 4.90% from Tuesday’s close of 4.95%. Bitcoin hovered below $78,000.
Why the drop, then the rally? Put simply, futures are a “rehearsal” for the market before it opens, reflecting the first reaction of overnight money. That first reaction was fear: with Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, markets worried that the AI boom could hit headwinds, taxes could rise, and regulation could tighten. Tech stocks took the brunt, sending Nasdaq 100 futures down the most. But after investors took a breath and ran the numbers, they realized that a divided government—a Republican president and a Democratic Congress—means legislative gridlock, making it difficult to pass any radical policies. Add a weaker dollar and falling yields, and investors came back in to buy the dip, turning futures higher. What investors feared was uncertainty; what lifted markets was the idea that “gridlock is actually more predictable.”
Earnings are also giving the AI bulls something to cheer about. Arista Networks reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion, up 58.5% year over year and its fastest growth since going public. That was nearly $360 million above its own $3.3 billion guidance. It forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $3.9 billion to $4.0 billion, and expects 2027 revenue to grow 38%–40% to about $18.5 billion, with AI networking revenue doubling to around $7 billion. Its shares rose about 9.5% after hours to around $186. Advanced Micro Devices also reported third-quarter revenue of $13.4 billion, up 45% year over year, with data center revenue nearly doubling. Orders for AI infrastructure haven’t dried up—the market is simply repricing valuations.
But don’t be fooled by the overnight turnaround. First, half the support behind this gold rally comes from a weaker dollar and falling yields, while the CME FedWatch Tool still shows the probability of a December rate hike near 80%. Rate-hike expectations haven’t budged, so gold’s rally still lacks the backing of monetary policy. Second, the real test comes Friday, November 6, when the U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is released. Strong data could push the dollar and rate-hike expectations back up together. Third, remember the warning from Goldman Sachs traders: 60% of S&P 500 constituents have already entered bear-market territory. The index turning higher doesn’t mean every stock is back on its feet; in this rally, only a few are rising.
Keep an eye on three levels: if gold holds above $4,000, the next steps up are $4,050–$4,115; if it falls below $3,920, this election rally will have been a one-day wonder. Until Friday’s jobs report, treat every move in futures as noise. The divided-government script has only just begun—the real drama is yet to come.
#美股 #Gold