Don’t believe the news that “the US–Iran agreement has been approved” just yet — a Reuters report says otherwise.
The facts: A senior Iranian official told Reuters (Nov. 4) that the US and Iran are still far from reaching a deal to end the war, even as Qatar’s mediation efforts intensify. Last night, the US launched a limited “defensive” strike on Qeshm Island, targeting surface-to-air missiles it considered a threat to US assets. Oil rose about 1.3% on Tuesday after plunging more than 7% on Monday. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed on Wednesday that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting sea mines south of the Strait of Hormuz — that’s a unilateral claim and has not been independently verified.
My take: The swings in oil prices over the past two days tell a clear story: on Monday, markets felt relieved, hoping for diplomacy; on Tuesday, that relief evaporated once it became clear a deal was nowhere near and attacks were still taking place. For crypto, the connection is through inflation: as long as Hormuz remains closed, expensive oil makes it harder for inflation expectations to fall — putting pressure on risk assets. I read BTC’s recovery to around $78,330 today as still lacking a macroeconomic cushion.
What I’m watching: Washington and Tehran’s responses to the mediators’ proposal — one source says within ~36 hours, while another Iranian official stressed that there is no firm deadline — as well as whether Hormuz actually reopens, and the eurozone’s flash CPI at 17:00 WIB as the next item on the agenda.
Do you think the market felt relieved too soon on Monday, or was this escalation already priced in?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Geopolitik #Minyak $BTC
The facts: A senior Iranian official told Reuters (Nov. 4) that the US and Iran are still far from reaching a deal to end the war, even as Qatar’s mediation efforts intensify. Last night, the US launched a limited “defensive” strike on Qeshm Island, targeting surface-to-air missiles it considered a threat to US assets. Oil rose about 1.3% on Tuesday after plunging more than 7% on Monday. Separately, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed on Wednesday that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting sea mines south of the Strait of Hormuz — that’s a unilateral claim and has not been independently verified.
My take: The swings in oil prices over the past two days tell a clear story: on Monday, markets felt relieved, hoping for diplomacy; on Tuesday, that relief evaporated once it became clear a deal was nowhere near and attacks were still taking place. For crypto, the connection is through inflation: as long as Hormuz remains closed, expensive oil makes it harder for inflation expectations to fall — putting pressure on risk assets. I read BTC’s recovery to around $78,330 today as still lacking a macroeconomic cushion.
What I’m watching: Washington and Tehran’s responses to the mediators’ proposal — one source says within ~36 hours, while another Iranian official stressed that there is no firm deadline — as well as whether Hormuz actually reopens, and the eurozone’s flash CPI at 17:00 WIB as the next item on the agenda.
Do you think the market felt relieved too soon on Monday, or was this escalation already priced in?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#Geopolitik #Minyak $BTC