Summary of market analysis and operation control for the whole year of 2023 and outlook for the bull market trend in 2024! 【24/02/08】
This is a belated summary, and it is also a record of my analysis and grasp of the problems on my own trading journey. I have always studied financial trading as a craft. Maybe I am not smart enough, I am not from a major, and I don’t have a dazzling aura. But I was fortunate enough to follow some people who led the way and lit the light for me on my stumbling trading road.
Buffett said: Only when the tide goes out do you know who has been swimming naked. People are born lonely, and trading is also lonely. Don't let the wind take its course. Only through careful consideration, strict planning and unswerving execution can you continue to make profits.
For a summary of the first half of the year, you can view "Summary of Market Operations in the First Half of the Year on July 4, 2023 and Outlook for the Market Trend in the Second Half of the Year and its Sequel" and "About Why Do I Continue to Be Bullish?" Are many powerful big Vs bearish? 》
In the second half of the year, on September 12, Bitcoin rebounded again, which is a short-term entry opportunity. Execute according to the trading plan.
The market is about to change on 9/14, or it may usher in a weekly rebound. Is it in line with expectations and waiting patiently? The bottom was bought near 25,000 and the position was reduced to around 28,600. The subsequent pullback was to around 26,600. The ETF fake news pin reached 30,000, which was not expected.
On 10/20, the market returns to 28,600. If it steps back to stand firm at 28,000, there is a chance to challenge 40,000. After the market returns to 28600, it continues to be bullish. It also reminds that small-level corrections can be planned.
10/22 Bullish expectations remain unchanged, short-term divergence will cover the needle, and a pullback is a buying opportunity
11/02FOMO sentiment is high, the market breaks through again in the short term, Fibonacci 0.382 is about to break through the next pressure of 42000
11/29 Major decision-making KOLs are all bearish. My excessive trading is against human nature. The balance of victory is often tilted towards a very small number of people.
Bitcoin reached 40,000 on 12/12. The drop is a spot opportunity. Will we see 48,000 next?
In the middle of 36000-38500, I initially believed that there was a need for a correction, but later I was reminded to move out of the ascending triangle and continue to be bullish. The spot left the market in batches from 42000-44000 and then went short-term. If it fell below 40000, it also reminded me to wait for another rebound. On the 6th, we reminded to be wary of the plummeting BTC trend of re-enacting 519. Although there was another short-term breakthrough in the early morning, this view is still valid until it effectively breaks through 49,000. This is not the current view. We have been reminding the risk before rushing to 42,000-48,000.
The correction from 49000 to 38555 was more than 10,000 points, a drop of more than 20%.
Problems in trading: The main ones are poor judgment in the volatile market and rebound market, and the inability to hold on to the trending market.
For example: 8/09 returned to the high box, and the daily downward trend line broke through. Is the long-awaited market finally coming? At that time, I thought that returning to the 29500 box and waiting for the daily line to stabilize would start a rebound and remind me not to fall below the box again. If it falls to the upward trend maintained by the daily line, it will rebound and then fall directly below. Although we are not trapped if it falls below 28600, we are all out. There is no clear warning in the public analysis that there will be a sharp decline.
The rising channel fell below on 10/12, starting three downward waves. Can 24900 be supported? Although the bottom was bought near 25000 and the position was reduced near 28600, the drop from 28600 to around 26500 also reminded that there would be a correction to see lower 22000-23000, etc. There were two previous supports from 26000 to 24900, which were not broken, so there was no rebound. Good judgment and grasp, but the trend of the market cannot be grasped.
24-year bull market outlook
1️⃣, interest rate cuts will begin in the second half of 2024
2️⃣, Bitcoin halving 04/21, 72 days left
3️⃣, Ethereum Cancun upgrade at the end of February and beginning of March
The bull market will definitely come, and the reason is very simple. It rebounded from 15,400 to 49,000 and reached Fibonacci 0.618. This is a relatively strong rebound. The higher the rebound in this wave, the higher the probability of a subsequent correction to break through 69,000. If the entire rebound is regarded as 1 wave of decline, the low point of 2 waves will be the starting point of the next bull market. If the 23-year rebound is regarded as 3 waves, then it will face 1 wave of decline. The starting point of 2 wave rebound is also a relatively good market.
As for what price the 2024 bull market will reach, it is all conjecture at present, but what is certain is that if it breaks through 69,000 and sees 100,000 or even 150,000, it is a high probability event, and some even say it is possible to reach 300,000. $BTC $ETH $SOL #tia #PIXEL #DYM #内容挖
