🇺🇸 Midterms are over: Democrats retake both chambers of Congress, and Trump suffers his first electoral defeat.
The odds of a Fed rate hike in December have surged to 79.2, as markets price in a double whammy of a “blue wave + tightening.”
📊 Key data:
• BTC: Fell below 76,000 before the election → V-shaped rebound to 77,800; 70% already priced in
• Dollar: Weakened across the G10
• Gold: The case for a breakout above 4,000 is strong
• Long-dated Treasuries: Expectations of a fiscal stalemate are weighing on yields
🧭 Market-by-market outlook:
U.S. stocks → High-beta tech gets hit first, defensives take the lead, volatility rises
Crypto → CLARITY delayed and regulatory headwinds persist, but BTC’s downside resilience remains solid
Macro → Tight at the short end, loose at the long end; weak dollar, strong gold
💡 My take:
This isn’t a crash—it’s a repricing. Political division reduces systemic risk, while rate hikes curb inflation rather than rescue a recession. History rhymes: post-election selloff and bottoming → December FOMC sets the direction → bad news fully priced in and a recovery in Q1 2027.
$BTC
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
The odds of a Fed rate hike in December have surged to 79.2, as markets price in a double whammy of a “blue wave + tightening.”
📊 Key data:
• BTC: Fell below 76,000 before the election → V-shaped rebound to 77,800; 70% already priced in
• Dollar: Weakened across the G10
• Gold: The case for a breakout above 4,000 is strong
• Long-dated Treasuries: Expectations of a fiscal stalemate are weighing on yields
🧭 Market-by-market outlook:
U.S. stocks → High-beta tech gets hit first, defensives take the lead, volatility rises
Crypto → CLARITY delayed and regulatory headwinds persist, but BTC’s downside resilience remains solid
Macro → Tight at the short end, loose at the long end; weak dollar, strong gold
💡 My take:
This isn’t a crash—it’s a repricing. Political division reduces systemic risk, while rate hikes curb inflation rather than rescue a recession. History rhymes: post-election selloff and bottoming → December FOMC sets the direction → bad news fully priced in and a recovery in Q1 2027.
$BTC
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
