黑猫SabTheTrader

#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ The U.S. October jobs report is due Friday. How might BTC and the Nasdaq move? 👀

The report is scheduled for release at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 6. Markets currently expect about 62,000 new jobs, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly earnings.

If employment and wages both come in stronger than expected, markets may scale back expectations for rate cuts, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher. The Nasdaq could come under pressure, and BTC may also be affected by cooling risk appetite.

If the data comes in weak, expectations for rate cuts may rise, supporting the Nasdaq $QQQ and $BTC . But if the weakness is severe enough to stoke recession fears, safe-haven selling could come first.

The key is how the data compares with expectations, and how the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets actually react after the release.

* NFA, DYOR

🎁🔥🧧

@CJ_W 🎁

@CJ_GraceWang1688 🧧

@小马哥哥啊 🧧

Down 18.39% over 24 hours, while OI quantity rose 3.15% in the past hour; $HUMA leveraged positions have not retreated in step with the continued price weakness. Spot fell 17.71% over the same period, and the latest full-hour perpetual contract dropped another 3.13%, with trading volume up 56.59% from the previous hour—this is not a low-volume pullback.

⚠️ The indicative funding rate has fallen to -0.3072%, and the latest settlement rate was also -0.2816%. An extremely negative funding rate indicates a high cost of holding short positions and could provide fuel for a rebound; however, OI only confirms that positions are expanding. It cannot prove that new positions are net short, much less that high-cost shorts mean a reversal is imminent.

If a full-hour candle closes back above 0.016395 USDT while OI falls and the funding rate converges, the evidence for a short-term squeeze would be more convincing. If the close continues to fall below 0.016112 USDT while OI keeps expanding, I would first guard against crowded shorts still being able to push prices lower, followed by more violent two-way deleveraging.

* NFA, DYOR

🧧🔥🎁

Up about 28.8% over 24 hours, while OI in the 30-point window for $FLUID increased by about 105.68%—how crowded is this leverage trade? The last 4 complete hours saw a 7.50% rise, with trading volume 1.78 times that of the previous window; the latest complete 1-hour period rose another 2.05%, with trading volume up 91.92% from the previous period and OI up 4.04% over the same period.

📌 Price, volume, and OI are expanding in tandem, but the indicative funding rate has risen to +0.0731%, with the latest settlement at +0.0800%, significantly raising the cost of holding long positions. The available data confirms leveraged buying into the rally, but does not prove that the uptrend will continue. If prices weaken while OI keeps expanding at elevated levels, crowded positions could amplify the pullback in reverse.

A breakout would be healthier if a complete hourly candle closes above 2.777 USDT on increased volume, with moderate OI growth and a falling funding rate. If the price drops below 2.470 USDT while OI remains elevated, I would first watch out for long deleveraging.

* NFA, DYOR

Yesterday, price moved first while positions lagged; now OI for $LSK is starting to catch up. At the previous update, the 30-point window for quantity OI had increased by just 0.92%; this time it has widened to 5.70%, with a 4.32% increase in the past hour. Over the same period, perpetuals rose 7.82% over the last 4 complete hours, with trading volume 3.42 times that of the previous window.

⚠️ Positions rising alongside price does not mean the risk has disappeared. The indicative funding rate remains as low as -0.7701%, and the most recent settlement was also -0.2744%; negative funding and rising open positions expanding at the same time indicate that the leveraged battle between longs and shorts is intensifying. This could continue to fuel a short squeeze, or amplify a cascade if the trend reverses. OI growth alone is not enough to conclude that longs have the upper hand.

If a complete hour sees a breakout above 0.2181 USDT on increased volume, with moderate OI growth and a recovery in the funding rate, the trend continuation will be more credible. If price falls back below 0.1945 USDT while OI expands, I would first guard against a cascade of crowded positions in the opposite direction.

* NFA, DYOR

Replenishment of the affected amount has advanced from about 95% to about 98%, but the complete zero-knowledge proof for the new snapshot has not yet been generated. Binance said in Recovery Update #7 that replenishment of the remaining roughly 2% is expected to be slower due to lower asset liquidity; the new PoR snapshot at 00:00 (UTC) on November 4 covers 44 tokens, up from 10 previously, and the complete proof is expected to take another 50–60 hours. $BNB is a tradable market observation, not substitute evidence for the progress described above.

The market reaction was positive, but price and volume did not confirm it in tandem. As of 00:09 (UTC), BNB spot and perpetuals were up 3.00% and 3.02%, respectively, over 24 hours. Perpetuals rose 0.85% over the last 4 complete hours, while trading volume was only 0.74 times that of the previous window. Quantity OI fell 0.37% over the most recent 1-hour period and 5.50% over the 30-point window. Leverage positions contracted even as prices rose, which looks more like spot-led buying or short covering, but the available data cannot confirm which.

⚠️ The 98% figure is Binance’s own statement. The new snapshot covering 44 tokens has not yet completed its zero-knowledge proof, and this does not amount to real-time solvency or mean the event is resolved. If price breaks above 723.99 USDT on increased volume over a full hour, and the subsequent proof is verifiable on schedule, there would be evidence for the risk premium to continue easing. If price falls below 714.00 USDT alongside renewed OI expansion, first watch for the market to reprice uncertainty.

* NFA, DYOR

Up 22.95% over 24 hours, with the latest full hour adding another 4.14%; trading volume rose 176.02% from the previous period. The price, volume, and open interest of $AIO have all risen again at the same time. As of 14:07 (UTC), Binance perpetuals were trading at around 0.03814 USDT. There is no Binance spot market for this asset for cross-checking.

Over the latest four full hours, the price rose 6.83%, while trading volume was 1.55 times that of the previous window. Quantity-based OI increased 59.65% across 30 data points, and rose another 7.29% in the latest hour. Leverage participation is still accelerating, but quantity-based OI cannot distinguish between new longs and shorts, so simultaneous expansion should not be taken as direct confirmation of a trend.

The indicative funding rate is around +0.0122%, with the latest settlement at around +0.0090%; long-side costs are not yet extreme. ⚠️ With no spot confirmation and OI having expanded sharply, deleveraging could amplify volatility if the price weakens.

If a full hourly candle holds above 0.03999 USDT and OI growth cools, the breakout would be higher quality. If the price falls below 0.03659 USDT while volume continues to expand and OI remains elevated, I would first guard against a sharp pullback.

* NFA, DYOR

I don’t feel like trading today, so I’m taking the day off from streaming.
The Nasdaq rose so much during the day, and there really isn’t much to do tonight.
Let’s slow down and ease up on the urge to make money.

See you tomorrow night at 10, friends ✨

Down 47.11% in 24 hours, while 30-point OI rose 60.19%: after $UAI ’s sharp drop, positions did not retreat along with the price. UAIUSDT perpetuals are the only contracts listed on Binance. Over the latest four full hours, the price fell another 4.35%, with trading volume at 1.48 times that of the preceding window.

⚠️ The previous full hour saw a 1.21% decline, while trading volume fell 35.19% from the prior hour. Contract-count OI rose 2.89% over the same period, and both the indicator and the latest settled funding rate were +0.0050%. The available data only confirms that leverage continued to build during the decline; it cannot determine whether the new positions were net long or net short. Rapid medium-term OI expansion could amplify further downside, but could also increase the risk of a squeeze during a rebound.

If a full hourly candle closes below 0.0876 USDT with rising volume and continued OI growth, I would first guard against a second wave of liquidations. If the price reclaims 0.0944 USDT while volume cools and OI growth slows, only then would I consider selling pressure to be easing.

* NFA, DYOR

Has #BinancePick checked in today? There are still 7 matches without results—it's getting pretty tense 🤣

Up about 14% in 24 hours, while the funding rate has plunged to -0.8988%: $LSK is seeing prices strengthen as holding costs pull in the opposite direction. Binance spot and perpetual prices rose 13.97% and 12.44%, respectively, over 24 hours. Over the last 4 complete hours, perpetuals gained another 8.10%, with trading volume rising to 5.29 times that of the previous window.

⚠️ The previous complete hour still rose 1.62%, but trading volume fell 24.09% from the prior hour. Quantity OI increased 2.16% over the past hour, but only 0.92% over the 30-point window. Prices and short-term positions continue to rise, while medium-term OI has not accelerated in tandem. An extremely negative funding rate could amplify a squeeze, or simply reflect the cost of crowded opposing positions; it does not prove the rally will continue.

If a complete hourly candle closes above 0.2010 USDT on rising volume, with OI increasing moderately and the funding rate recovering, that would provide further confirmation of the bullish structure. If the price falls below 0.1805 USDT on rising volume while OI continues to increase, I would first guard against leveraged positioning amplifying the pullback.

* NFA, DYOR

Down another 10.64% over 4 hours, while OI increased 5.15% in the most recent hour: $AKE 's position expansion has not stopped with the decline. As of 04:17 (UTC), Binance perpetuals were down 24.96% over 24 hours, most recently trading at around 0.003506 USDT; there is no Binance spot market for this asset to cross-check against.

Trading volume over the last 4 full hours was 2.37 times that of the previous window, and OI increased by a cumulative 59.91% across 30 data points. In the previous full hour, the price rebounded 0.40% and trading volume rose 7.92% from the prior hour, but the current price is again about 1.35% below that hour's close, suggesting the short-term rebound has not yet eased the downward pressure.

The indicative funding rate is around +0.0050%, with the latest actual settlement at around +0.0040%; there is no sign yet of extreme one-sided position costs. OI expansion also does not reveal the direction of new positions, so it cannot prove that the decline will necessarily continue.

If a full hourly candle breaks below 0.003338 USDT while OI does not fall, I would first be wary of another acceleration to the downside; only a high-volume recovery above 0.003639 USDT, alongside a cooling OI growth rate, would provide a basis for the structure to stabilize.

* NFA, DYOR

Prices continue to surge, while open interest and negative funding rates are both reaching extremes. As of 02:06 (UTC), $BMT spot and perpetual prices were up 42.74% and 39.36% over 24 hours, respectively, with the perpetual trading at around 0.02939 USDT.

Over the last 4 complete hours, the price rose 12.94%, with trading volume reaching 2.59 times that of the previous window. The previous complete 1-hour period saw a further 4.64% gain, while trading volume increased 54.73% from the prior hour. OI quantity rose 14.29% over the same hour, and its increase over the 30-point window has reached 87.52%, indicating that leveraged participation is also building rapidly as prices accelerate.

⚠️ The indicative funding rate is around -1.5510%, while the most recent actual settlement was around -0.7645%. Deeply negative funding rates could amplify a short squeeze, or simply reflect a contract discount amid high volatility. Rising OI does not reveal the direction of new positions, nor does it prove that the rally will continue.

If the price holds above 0.03046 USDT on strong volume over a complete hourly period, and OI growth begins to cool, the bullish structure will be more solid. If it falls below 0.02758 USDT on rising volume and with contracting OI, treat it first as a high-leverage unwind.

* NFA, DYOR

Up 19.09% in 4 hours, with trading volume expanding to 14.14 times that of the previous window and positions accelerating in tandem. According to public Binance data, as of 00:06 (UTC), $CLANKER perpetual was up 39.20% over 24 hours, last trading at 15.73 USDT; Binance has no spot market for this asset for cross-checking.

It rose another 8.29% in the last full hour, while trading volume increased 103.94% from the previous hour. Quantity-based OI rose 21.50% over the last hour and 79.21% over the 30-point window. The indicated and most recent settled funding rates are both around +0.0050%, with no sign yet of extreme costs for chasing longs.

However, rising OI does not reveal the direction of positions, and the convergence of price, volume, and positions in a single-sided perpetual market cannot prove that the rally will continue. With no spot-market confirmation and a sharp 4-hour surge behind it, the risk of concentrated deleveraging is now higher than during the initial move.

If a full hourly candle holds above 15.65 USDT, volume remains firm, and OI growth cools, I’ll continue watching for further upside. If price breaks below 14.18 USDT on rising volume while OI remains elevated, I’ll prioritize the risk of deleveraging and avoid chasing the price.

* NFA, DYOR

Up 54.96% in 4 hours, but pulled back in the last full hour as trading volume rose 38.02%—AGT’s acceleration phase is beginning to show signs of elevated turnover. As of 14:06 (UTC), public Binance data showed the $AGT perpetual contract up 73.16% over 24 hours, with the latest price at 0.05387 USDT; there is no Binance spot market for this asset to provide cross-verification.

Positioning has not continued to accelerate in tandem: OI by contract quantity is still up 22.58% across 30 data points, but fell 3.44% in the most recent hour. Meanwhile, the indicative funding rate is around +0.0556%, while the most recent actual settlement was around +0.0151%, raising the cost of chasing longs.

These figures confirm only a significant increase in medium-term leveraged participation. They cannot tell whether the short-term OI decline came from longs or shorts closing positions, nor prove that the 24-hour rally will continue. Trading volume over the last 4 full hours was 2.11 times that of the previous window, but the lack of spot-market cross-verification remains the main limitation.

I’ll treat 0.06193 USDT as the upside confirmation level: I’ll continue watching for further gains only if a full hourly candle closes back above it on higher volume and OI no longer surges. If the price falls below 0.04966 USDT on rising volume while OI remains high, I’ll treat it as a risk of concentrated deleveraging and avoid chasing after the acceleration.

* NFA, DYOR