What stage of the cryptocurrency market cycle are we in?
Is now a good time to buy the dip?
The conclusion first
Cycle position: The distribution phase following the bull-market peak is over. We are now in the mid-to-late bear-market “valuation reset” phase, but we have not yet reached a historically significant cycle bottom.
BTC is currently around $76,700 (Binance spot close: 76,747; Hyperliquid mark price: 76,646), down 39.2% from its October 2025 high of 126,200.
The monthly chart shows a clear series of lower highs: 126,200 → 97,924 (January) → 87,396 (September) → 76,700 now.
The key evidence that we “haven’t bottomed yet” comes from on-chain valuation:
MVRV is just 1.44,
Z-score is -0.31.
At true cycle bottoms in the past (2018 and 2022), MVRV fell below 1.0 and the Z-score dropped below -1. We are still a considerable distance from those levels.
In other words, prices have fallen substantially, but holders’ overall unrealized gains have not yet been completely wiped out.
Macroeconomic conditions and events are also weighing on the market:
The Federal Reserve is holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, while inflation remains elevated;
The U.S. midterm elections are adding uncertainty;
And the November 2 theft of approximately $6.3 billion from Binance has shaken confidence.
These are factors that “limit the upside of any rebound,”
not factors that “create a bottom.”
ETH and SOL are weaker:
ETH is at 2,259 (-52.5%), barely above its 200-day moving average of 2,157, with a 90-day low of 1,854;
SOL is at 91.5 (-61.5%), right on its 200-day moving average of 89.0, with a 90-day low of 72.4.
These two are in a more precarious position than BTC—if they break below their 200-day moving averages, there will be room for further downside.
Should you buy now?
You can buy in batches, but it’s not a good time to go all in.
The reasons: valuations haven’t reached extremes, ETFs are still seeing net outflows, and leverage hasn’t been flushed out. These three factors suggest the “bottom” probably hasn’t arrived yet;
But prices are above their 200-day moving averages, exchange reserves are declining, and sentiment has entered fear territory. These three factors mean that staying completely on the sidelines also carries the risk of missing out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Is now a good time to buy the dip?
The conclusion first
Cycle position: The distribution phase following the bull-market peak is over. We are now in the mid-to-late bear-market “valuation reset” phase, but we have not yet reached a historically significant cycle bottom.
BTC is currently around $76,700 (Binance spot close: 76,747; Hyperliquid mark price: 76,646), down 39.2% from its October 2025 high of 126,200.
The monthly chart shows a clear series of lower highs: 126,200 → 97,924 (January) → 87,396 (September) → 76,700 now.
The key evidence that we “haven’t bottomed yet” comes from on-chain valuation:
MVRV is just 1.44,
Z-score is -0.31.
At true cycle bottoms in the past (2018 and 2022), MVRV fell below 1.0 and the Z-score dropped below -1. We are still a considerable distance from those levels.
In other words, prices have fallen substantially, but holders’ overall unrealized gains have not yet been completely wiped out.
Macroeconomic conditions and events are also weighing on the market:
The Federal Reserve is holding rates steady at 3.75%–4.00%, while inflation remains elevated;
The U.S. midterm elections are adding uncertainty;
And the November 2 theft of approximately $6.3 billion from Binance has shaken confidence.
These are factors that “limit the upside of any rebound,”
not factors that “create a bottom.”
ETH and SOL are weaker:
ETH is at 2,259 (-52.5%), barely above its 200-day moving average of 2,157, with a 90-day low of 1,854;
SOL is at 91.5 (-61.5%), right on its 200-day moving average of 89.0, with a 90-day low of 72.4.
These two are in a more precarious position than BTC—if they break below their 200-day moving averages, there will be room for further downside.
Should you buy now?
You can buy in batches, but it’s not a good time to go all in.
The reasons: valuations haven’t reached extremes, ETFs are still seeing net outflows, and leverage hasn’t been flushed out. These three factors suggest the “bottom” probably hasn’t arrived yet;
But prices are above their 200-day moving averages, exchange reserves are declining, and sentiment has entered fear territory. These three factors mean that staying completely on the sidelines also carries the risk of missing out.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
