No matter how you look at it, another rate hike in December has become a near certainty.
- On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points.
- On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4%,
with two committee members favoring further hikes.
- US PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year over year in September.
- On November 3, interest rate futures put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at nearly 80%.
And even strong growth data won't be enough to push the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.
The good news is that the negative impact of a 25-basis-point hike in December will be priced in ahead of time. But—
if inflation comes in hotter than expected again, the market will reprice the interest rate path for 2027.
A high-rate environment lasting longer would likely hit assets other than $BTC quite hard.
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
$ZRO
$NEAR
$UNI
- On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points.
- On October 28, the Fed held rates at 3.75%–4%,
with two committee members favoring further hikes.
- US PCE inflation rose to 3.6% year over year in September.
- On November 3, interest rate futures put the odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December at nearly 80%.
And even strong growth data won't be enough to push the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.
The good news is that the negative impact of a 25-basis-point hike in December will be priced in ahead of time. But—
if inflation comes in hotter than expected again, the market will reprice the interest rate path for 2027.
A high-rate environment lasting longer would likely hit assets other than $BTC quite hard.
#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
$ZRO
$NEAR
$UNI