ETH’s price action right now is a little tangled, but there are signals hidden in the mess 👀
On one hand, ETFs have seen net outflows for six straight trading days.
About $140 million flowed out on Monday alone, bringing the six-day total to around $570 million.
The last net inflow was the roughly $4 million on October 23, and there hasn’t been one since.
On the other hand, the price refuses to lie down.
ETH briefly climbed back to around $2,290 intraday and was still up about 1.8% over 24 hours.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate also rose to around 0.0295, breaking through a downward trendline.
ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive days—a rare occurrence in the recent weak market.
What stings even more is the math underneath.
According to Bloomberg analysts’ estimates, ETH ETF holders are sitting on nearly $3.5 billion in unrealized losses.
Their average cost is just under $3,200, while the current price is around $2,290, meaning most ETF buyers are underwater.
Flows looked pretty good through the end of September, but a wave of outflows in October reversed the momentum.
So what’s ETH’s status right now?
Money is flowing out, the price is holding up, and the exchange rate is turning higher.
Taken together, these three things look neither like a one-sided capitulation nor a trend reversal.
It looks more like some investors are stopping out and leaving, while others are buying the dip—the rotation hasn’t finished yet.
My personal take:
If ETH is going to make an independent move, don’t start by watching for the day ETFs see inflows again. Start by watching the $2,300 level.
If it holds, the rising exchange rate may have room to continue; if it doesn’t, this outperformance will just mean falling a little more slowly.
The $3.5 billion in unrealized losses held by ETF investors won’t disappear on its own, and break-even selling could turn into fresh selling pressure at any time.
What do you think?
Is ETH’s relative strength this time the start of bottoming and rotation, or just a brief breather amid ETF selling pressure?
$ETH $BTC #市场观察 #Ethereum
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
On one hand, ETFs have seen net outflows for six straight trading days.
About $140 million flowed out on Monday alone, bringing the six-day total to around $570 million.
The last net inflow was the roughly $4 million on October 23, and there hasn’t been one since.
On the other hand, the price refuses to lie down.
ETH briefly climbed back to around $2,290 intraday and was still up about 1.8% over 24 hours.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate also rose to around 0.0295, breaking through a downward trendline.
ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive days—a rare occurrence in the recent weak market.
What stings even more is the math underneath.
According to Bloomberg analysts’ estimates, ETH ETF holders are sitting on nearly $3.5 billion in unrealized losses.
Their average cost is just under $3,200, while the current price is around $2,290, meaning most ETF buyers are underwater.
Flows looked pretty good through the end of September, but a wave of outflows in October reversed the momentum.
So what’s ETH’s status right now?
Money is flowing out, the price is holding up, and the exchange rate is turning higher.
Taken together, these three things look neither like a one-sided capitulation nor a trend reversal.
It looks more like some investors are stopping out and leaving, while others are buying the dip—the rotation hasn’t finished yet.
My personal take:
If ETH is going to make an independent move, don’t start by watching for the day ETFs see inflows again. Start by watching the $2,300 level.
If it holds, the rising exchange rate may have room to continue; if it doesn’t, this outperformance will just mean falling a little more slowly.
The $3.5 billion in unrealized losses held by ETF investors won’t disappear on its own, and break-even selling could turn into fresh selling pressure at any time.
What do you think?
Is ETH’s relative strength this time the start of bottoming and rotation, or just a brief breather amid ETF selling pressure?
$ETH $BTC #市场观察 #Ethereum
This is not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.