On election night, BTC has fallen back below $77,000.
On the evening of November 3, U.S. Eastern Time, once the early vote counts came in, BTC slid to $76,972 on Binance spot, down about 1.2% intraday.
Honestly, that drop itself isn’t very big.
But where it fell is telling: it had only reclaimed $77,000 a couple of days ago, and now it’s lost that level again.
A lot of people will pin this on the midterm elections.
The vote count pointed to Democrats gaining more seats in Congress, and the market started repricing the outlook for crypto regulation.
That logic sounds reasonable, but I think it only tells half the story.
The other half has been right in front of us all along:
Over the past two trading days, spot ETFs for BTC and ETH have seen combined net outflows of about $1.3 billion.
Yesterday’s $643 million in outflows was the biggest single-day total since June, and today has simply continued that trend.
Money is flowing out, so of course prices can’t hold steady. The election news just gave them a reason to move lower.
It’s the same story with ETH.
On November 3, it briefly returned to around $2,290 intraday, making it look like it was recovering.
But when the broader market wobbles, it comes under pressure too, with no independent rally.
So here’s how I see it right now:
The election results will unsettle sentiment, but they won’t determine the direction on their own.
The real things to watch are the same old ones: when ETF outflows will stop, whether support at $75,800 will hold, and whether the November 6 jobs report will deal another blow.
The louder the headlines get, the more important it is to watch where the money is flowing.
What do you think—is this move on election night an election-driven rally, or was a retest already due?
$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #中期选举 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
On the evening of November 3, U.S. Eastern Time, once the early vote counts came in, BTC slid to $76,972 on Binance spot, down about 1.2% intraday.
Honestly, that drop itself isn’t very big.
But where it fell is telling: it had only reclaimed $77,000 a couple of days ago, and now it’s lost that level again.
A lot of people will pin this on the midterm elections.
The vote count pointed to Democrats gaining more seats in Congress, and the market started repricing the outlook for crypto regulation.
That logic sounds reasonable, but I think it only tells half the story.
The other half has been right in front of us all along:
Over the past two trading days, spot ETFs for BTC and ETH have seen combined net outflows of about $1.3 billion.
Yesterday’s $643 million in outflows was the biggest single-day total since June, and today has simply continued that trend.
Money is flowing out, so of course prices can’t hold steady. The election news just gave them a reason to move lower.
It’s the same story with ETH.
On November 3, it briefly returned to around $2,290 intraday, making it look like it was recovering.
But when the broader market wobbles, it comes under pressure too, with no independent rally.
So here’s how I see it right now:
The election results will unsettle sentiment, but they won’t determine the direction on their own.
The real things to watch are the same old ones: when ETF outflows will stop, whether support at $75,800 will hold, and whether the November 6 jobs report will deal another blow.
The louder the headlines get, the more important it is to watch where the money is flowing.
What do you think—is this move on election night an election-driven rally, or was a retest already due?
$BTC $ETH
#市场观察 #中期选举 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.