BTC reclaimed the level on three overnight closes, then was knocked back below it on two morning closes: 77,620 still failed to hold
Last night I was still saying “the rebound hasn’t confirmed a reclaim,” and for a moment overnight I nearly had to eat my words: the 04:00, 05:00, and 06:00 hourly candles all closed above 77,620, making the reclaim look like it was about to stick. But then the 07:00 candle closed at 77,454 and the 08:00 candle at 77,021, knocking price back below the level. The 08:00 candle also saw volume spike to about 49.09 million USDT, with a low of 76,856. That sets the tone for this morning: the reclaim failed and the downside outlook is back, but support hasn’t broken—so don’t rush to call a new leg down.
The current price is around 77,058 (cross-checked against two sources before publication: Binance spot at 77,058 and OKX perpetuals at 77,030, a 0.04% difference). It’s essentially flat over 24 hours (-0.04%), with a high of 78,063 and a low of 76,389. $ETH is around 2,269 (+0.55% over 24 hours), and SOL is around 92.3. The analyst levels line up with this chart: support at 76,600–76,700, and the reclaim zone at 77,400–77,600. Price is currently caught between them, with neither side broken.
Overnight U.S. market signals were mixed: the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, ending a three-session losing streak, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, while the Dow fell 0.38% (weighed down by Apple’s gross margin guidance). September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, hotter than the 7.164 million expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 4.93%. The stock market rebound didn’t lift $BTC ; crypto is following its own weak trend, and we have to acknowledge that.
Three things to watch during the day: First, the U.S. midterm elections. Polling stations are closing across the Eastern Time zone from early evening onward. The first results show only an expected hold (the Virginia Senate seat); control of either chamber hasn’t been called yet. Polls in the West won’t close until the afternoon Beijing time, and results will come in gradually, so don’t jump to conclusions. Second, the 09:00 hourly close: HUMA’s first 08:00 candle closed below 0.020 (at 0.01970), and this next candle will show whether the breakdown is confirmed. Third, what today’s Binance proof-of-reserves snapshot shows, and what exactly Mercado’s first phase of reopening makes available—both are still unfolding, so don’t prejudge them.
A quick note on altcoins: BMT’s 08:00 candle closed at 0.02891 on a volume spike (about 4.3 times the 07:00 hourly volume), confirming the accelerating structure at the close. But I couldn’t find a news catalyst for November 4, so I won’t chase it separately. I already covered RUNE this morning (11 closes above 0.582, with the move continuing), so I won’t repeat that here. WLFI’s 08:00 candle plunged about 8% to 0.0468; I likewise couldn’t find a clear new catalyst, so I’m just keeping it on watch.
Here’s my view, along with the invalidation levels: during the day, I’m treating this as “failed reclaim, looking for support near the lower end of the range.” If an hourly candle closes back above 77,620, this view is invalidated. Conversely, a close below the November 3 low of 76,389 would open the door to further downside. Last night’s liquidation figures also show both sides getting hit: CoinGlass reported about $397 million in 24-hour liquidations, roughly 80% of them long positions. But shorts were also forced out during a few hours of the rebound. Until price picks a direction, leverage is uncomfortable on both sides.
The risk warning remains the same: this is just my personal record of market action, not investment advice. Price can prove me wrong at any time, so make your own decisions about position sizing. Here’s the question for you: during the day, do you think we’ll hit 77,620 first, or test support at 76,600 first? Pick a side in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #早盘复盘 #U.S. midterm elections
Last night I was still saying “the rebound hasn’t confirmed a reclaim,” and for a moment overnight I nearly had to eat my words: the 04:00, 05:00, and 06:00 hourly candles all closed above 77,620, making the reclaim look like it was about to stick. But then the 07:00 candle closed at 77,454 and the 08:00 candle at 77,021, knocking price back below the level. The 08:00 candle also saw volume spike to about 49.09 million USDT, with a low of 76,856. That sets the tone for this morning: the reclaim failed and the downside outlook is back, but support hasn’t broken—so don’t rush to call a new leg down.
The current price is around 77,058 (cross-checked against two sources before publication: Binance spot at 77,058 and OKX perpetuals at 77,030, a 0.04% difference). It’s essentially flat over 24 hours (-0.04%), with a high of 78,063 and a low of 76,389. $ETH is around 2,269 (+0.55% over 24 hours), and SOL is around 92.3. The analyst levels line up with this chart: support at 76,600–76,700, and the reclaim zone at 77,400–77,600. Price is currently caught between them, with neither side broken.
Overnight U.S. market signals were mixed: the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, ending a three-session losing streak, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, while the Dow fell 0.38% (weighed down by Apple’s gross margin guidance). September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, hotter than the 7.164 million expected, and the 10-year Treasury yield returned to around 4.93%. The stock market rebound didn’t lift $BTC ; crypto is following its own weak trend, and we have to acknowledge that.
Three things to watch during the day: First, the U.S. midterm elections. Polling stations are closing across the Eastern Time zone from early evening onward. The first results show only an expected hold (the Virginia Senate seat); control of either chamber hasn’t been called yet. Polls in the West won’t close until the afternoon Beijing time, and results will come in gradually, so don’t jump to conclusions. Second, the 09:00 hourly close: HUMA’s first 08:00 candle closed below 0.020 (at 0.01970), and this next candle will show whether the breakdown is confirmed. Third, what today’s Binance proof-of-reserves snapshot shows, and what exactly Mercado’s first phase of reopening makes available—both are still unfolding, so don’t prejudge them.
A quick note on altcoins: BMT’s 08:00 candle closed at 0.02891 on a volume spike (about 4.3 times the 07:00 hourly volume), confirming the accelerating structure at the close. But I couldn’t find a news catalyst for November 4, so I won’t chase it separately. I already covered RUNE this morning (11 closes above 0.582, with the move continuing), so I won’t repeat that here. WLFI’s 08:00 candle plunged about 8% to 0.0468; I likewise couldn’t find a clear new catalyst, so I’m just keeping it on watch.
Here’s my view, along with the invalidation levels: during the day, I’m treating this as “failed reclaim, looking for support near the lower end of the range.” If an hourly candle closes back above 77,620, this view is invalidated. Conversely, a close below the November 3 low of 76,389 would open the door to further downside. Last night’s liquidation figures also show both sides getting hit: CoinGlass reported about $397 million in 24-hour liquidations, roughly 80% of them long positions. But shorts were also forced out during a few hours of the rebound. Until price picks a direction, leverage is uncomfortable on both sides.
The risk warning remains the same: this is just my personal record of market action, not investment advice. Price can prove me wrong at any time, so make your own decisions about position sizing. Here’s the question for you: during the day, do you think we’ll hit 77,620 first, or test support at 76,600 first? Pick a side in the comments.
#BTC #ETH #早盘复盘 #U.S. midterm elections
