#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ U.S. market analysis: Jobs data knocked gold down, while chips got a boost from AI
Voting is underway on Election Day, and the market is honestly split. The Dow fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, snapping a three-day losing streak. But the gains were all in chips and AI—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, AMD jumped 7.6% after hours, while Apple fell 1.9% on a warning about memory costs.
The real macro star was the bond market.
September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, versus expectations of just 7.1 million. Factory orders also beat expectations, rising 1.8% month over month. As soon as the data came out, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.948%, nearing the psychological 5% threshold. The dollar rose along with it, while gold was pushed down to around 3,920. Safe-haven metals buckled in the face of “higher for longer” interest rates.
The chain reaction is clear: strong jobs data → rising yields → pressure on gold and growth-stock valuations → investors only dare to pour into AI hardware backed by solid earnings. The VIX closed at 20.8. Fear has eased, but it hasn’t fully subsided.
This isn’t a broad-based risk-on move; investors are being selective. Hedge funds are still adding shorts amid the AI rebound. Don’t mistake a recovery for a reversal—wait and see how the market holds up at the open. $CL $XAU $KORU #AMD超预期大涨，AI叙事延续？
Voting is underway on Election Day, and the market is honestly split. The Dow fell 0.38%, the Nasdaq rose 0.83%, and the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, snapping a three-day losing streak. But the gains were all in chips and AI—the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 2.64%, AMD jumped 7.6% after hours, while Apple fell 1.9% on a warning about memory costs.
The real macro star was the bond market.
September JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523 million, versus expectations of just 7.1 million. Factory orders also beat expectations, rising 1.8% month over month. As soon as the data came out, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.948%, nearing the psychological 5% threshold. The dollar rose along with it, while gold was pushed down to around 3,920. Safe-haven metals buckled in the face of “higher for longer” interest rates.
The chain reaction is clear: strong jobs data → rising yields → pressure on gold and growth-stock valuations → investors only dare to pour into AI hardware backed by solid earnings. The VIX closed at 20.8. Fear has eased, but it hasn’t fully subsided.
This isn’t a broad-based risk-on move; investors are being selective. Hedge funds are still adding shorts amid the AI rebound. Don’t mistake a recovery for a reversal—wait and see how the market holds up at the open. $CL $XAU $KORU #AMD超预期大涨，AI叙事延续？
