Bloomberg survey: BTC’s year-end fate also depends on who wins tonight’s US election.
Fact: The Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey (Nov. 3) puts BTC’s median year-end price at $90,800 if Republicans control both the House and Senate, $84,100 if power is divided, and $76,450 if Democrats sweep both — the last figure is nearly the same as the current price, around $77,670. TD Cowen analysts quoted by Bloomberg view a Democratic sweep as the toughest scenario for the crypto industry, since it could stall the CLARITY Act market structure bill, which already failed in the Senate last September. But Bitwise research (Nov. 2) found no statistically significant link so far between election odds and the performance of major crypto assets.
My take: These figures aren’t price forecasts, but a reflection of respondents’ expectations about political scenarios — and the Bitwise finding is an important reminder: survey expectations don’t necessarily translate into price movements. What will really move the market is the official result, and whether the CLARITY Act gets a second chance in 2027, not tonight’s odds.
What I’m watching: the first election results, which are expected to start coming in this morning WIB, followed by US labor data on Friday — two catalysts this week.
Which scenario do you think is most likely — and will this election really change BTC’s direction, or is it just overnight noise?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#PemiluAS #Bitcoin $BTC
Fact: The Bloomberg Markets Pulse survey (Nov. 3) puts BTC’s median year-end price at $90,800 if Republicans control both the House and Senate, $84,100 if power is divided, and $76,450 if Democrats sweep both — the last figure is nearly the same as the current price, around $77,670. TD Cowen analysts quoted by Bloomberg view a Democratic sweep as the toughest scenario for the crypto industry, since it could stall the CLARITY Act market structure bill, which already failed in the Senate last September. But Bitwise research (Nov. 2) found no statistically significant link so far between election odds and the performance of major crypto assets.
My take: These figures aren’t price forecasts, but a reflection of respondents’ expectations about political scenarios — and the Bitwise finding is an important reminder: survey expectations don’t necessarily translate into price movements. What will really move the market is the official result, and whether the CLARITY Act gets a second chance in 2027, not tonight’s odds.
What I’m watching: the first election results, which are expected to start coming in this morning WIB, followed by US labor data on Friday — two catalysts this week.
Which scenario do you think is most likely — and will this election really change BTC’s direction, or is it just overnight noise?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#PemiluAS #Bitcoin $BTC