Funds have already flowed into defensive sectors
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老腊肉-kevin
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#纳斯达克100指数进入调整区间 U.S. AI stocks are crashing while Coca-Cola hits a new high. Is the AI trade really over?
I was watching the market last night. The Nasdaq surged as much as 1.4% before closing down 1.07% at 25164. The S&P 500 fell 0.51%, while the Dow actually rose 0.41%.
The biggest standout was Berkshire Hathaway Class B, which touched a record $557.59 intraday. Coca-Cola is up more than 36% year to date, outperforming a slew of tech giants. The money hasn’t left the market—it’s pulled out of AI hardware and moved into what you might call “certainty.”
So, is the AI trade over? My answer: the narrative isn’t dead, but the old pricing logic has been dismantled. Morgan Stanley data shows hedge funds’ AI exposure has fallen to “underweight” for the first time since early 2023.
The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the market is asking the same question: when will we see returns from nearly a trillion dollars in annual capital spending? This isn’t the end of the AI story. It’s the end of the phase where people “looked only at the vision and not the books.”
When will the trade come back? Watch two things.
First, Nvidia’s November 17 earnings report. Wolfe has said outright that it’s a key moment for the AI trade to “regain favor.”
Second, after the jobs report and midterm elections are out of the way, will investors dare to take on risk again? Ackman is already saying that “Wall Street is overestimating costs and underestimating the earnings curve.” Deutsche Bank has also upgraded tech stocks from “neutral” to “buy,” but these are all early signals.
The old-economy stalwarts hitting new highs doesn’t mean there’s been a permanent style shift. Until the numbers behind AI add up, investors are just looking for somewhere they can sleep at night. I’m not chasing Coca-Cola, and I’m not in a hurry to buy the dip in AI. I’ll wait until Nvidia shows its hand.$KO $BRKB $SOXL
I was watching the market last night. The Nasdaq surged as much as 1.4% before closing down 1.07% at 25164. The S&P 500 fell 0.51%, while the Dow actually rose 0.41%.
The biggest standout was Berkshire Hathaway Class B, which touched a record $557.59 intraday. Coca-Cola is up more than 36% year to date, outperforming a slew of tech giants. The money hasn’t left the market—it’s pulled out of AI hardware and moved into what you might call “certainty.”
So, is the AI trade over? My answer: the narrative isn’t dead, but the old pricing logic has been dismantled. Morgan Stanley data shows hedge funds’ AI exposure has fallen to “underweight” for the first time since early 2023.
The Nasdaq fell 5.3% in October, and the market is asking the same question: when will we see returns from nearly a trillion dollars in annual capital spending? This isn’t the end of the AI story. It’s the end of the phase where people “looked only at the vision and not the books.”
When will the trade come back? Watch two things.
First, Nvidia’s November 17 earnings report. Wolfe has said outright that it’s a key moment for the AI trade to “regain favor.”
Second, after the jobs report and midterm elections are out of the way, will investors dare to take on risk again? Ackman is already saying that “Wall Street is overestimating costs and underestimating the earnings curve.” Deutsche Bank has also upgraded tech stocks from “neutral” to “buy,” but these are all early signals.
The old-economy stalwarts hitting new highs doesn’t mean there’s been a permanent style shift. Until the numbers behind AI add up, investors are just looking for somewhere they can sleep at night. I’m not chasing Coca-Cola, and I’m not in a hurry to buy the dip in AI. I’ll wait until Nvidia shows its hand.$KO $BRKB $SOXL
