Tonight, as I follow the U.S. midterm elections, I’m more interested in whether they could bring good news for the crypto market.
The latest trading prices on Kalshi’s public market, captured at 18:03 Beijing time on November 3, imply a 94% probability that Democrats will control the House and a 76% probability that they will control the Senate. At the same time, Yes bid-ask quotes were 93.9%–94.0% and 75%–76%, respectively. These are market prices for two separate contracts, not poll results or the probability of Democrats winning both chambers; the two figures cannot be multiplied directly, and neither is a certain outcome.
Market pricing for the House has clearly shifted in one direction, while the Senate remains much more uncertain. For asset prices, an expected outcome does not necessarily provide fresh upward momentum. The real risks to watch are an unexpected result, repeated recounts, and sudden price jumps in thinly traded markets.
The first polling stations will close at 07:00 Beijing time on November 4, after which votes will be counted gradually. But control of Congress is not guaranteed to be confirmed that day. Prediction market settlements are also subject to platform rules, and market movements should not be treated as an official declaration of victory.
If control of both chambers is in line with market pricing, the focus will be on whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets confirm the easing of uncertainty. If the result deviates significantly from expectations, watch for repricing in interest rates and the dollar first, followed by tech stocks and crypto assets. If the outcome remains unconfirmed for an extended period, the key risks will be volatility and leverage.
The latest trading prices on Kalshi’s public market, captured at 18:03 Beijing time on November 3, imply a 94% probability that Democrats will control the House and a 76% probability that they will control the Senate. At the same time, Yes bid-ask quotes were 93.9%–94.0% and 75%–76%, respectively. These are market prices for two separate contracts, not poll results or the probability of Democrats winning both chambers; the two figures cannot be multiplied directly, and neither is a certain outcome.
Market pricing for the House has clearly shifted in one direction, while the Senate remains much more uncertain. For asset prices, an expected outcome does not necessarily provide fresh upward momentum. The real risks to watch are an unexpected result, repeated recounts, and sudden price jumps in thinly traded markets.
The first polling stations will close at 07:00 Beijing time on November 4, after which votes will be counted gradually. But control of Congress is not guaranteed to be confirmed that day. Prediction market settlements are also subject to platform rules, and market movements should not be treated as an official declaration of victory.
If control of both chambers is in line with market pricing, the focus will be on whether the dollar, Treasury yields, and risk assets confirm the easing of uncertainty. If the result deviates significantly from expectations, watch for repricing in interest rates and the dollar first, followed by tech stocks and crypto assets. If the outcome remains unconfirmed for an extended period, the key risks will be volatility and leverage.
