Bitcoin has fallen below $77,000, and the charts are flashing a danger signal.
CoinDesk reported today that the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) on Bitcoin’s daily chart has turned bearish: the short-term moving averages have crossed below the long-term averages, while the long-term averages are also beginning to converge downward and flatten out. In plain English: short-term buyers have pulled back, and long-term investors are no longer stepping in aggressively. The market is reaching a consensus that “this isn’t a price to buy at just yet.” The same signal appeared in late May, after which Bitcoin fell below $60,000 within a week. But false signals also appeared in August and September last year, followed by a quick rebound—this indicator is no ironclad rule.
More worth watching is that the fundamentals are deteriorating at the same time. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw net outflows of $643 million on October 30, their largest since June, followed by another $399 million on November 2. Cumulative outflows reached $739 million over seven trading days. Institutional money is flowing out, not in.
The trigger was the fallout from Binance’s security incident. Reports circulated that Binance had suffered a cyberattack involving around $6.3 billion. On October 30, more than $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated across the market, and the Fear and Greed Index fell to 26, in the fear zone. The depth of Binance’s Bitcoin order book briefly dropped by around 30%. Although net outflows have fallen from a peak of around $7 billion to $3.5 billion, and the deposit-to-withdrawal ratio has returned to 78%, the liquidity wound has yet to fully heal.
The chain of events is clear: a security shock undermines confidence → leveraged positions are forced to close → ETF money follows suit and exits → the price falls below the psychological $77,000 threshold → the GMMA confirms the bearish turn, giving bears a reason to keep probing lower.
The real variable tonight is the U.S. midterm election vote. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often rebounds after midterm elections. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of Bitcoin options expiring on November 4 has risen to around 43.5%, well above the 36% for longer-dated contracts. Implied volatility is the price the options market puts on future volatility; the higher it is, the more traders expect a major move. They’re all buying insurance against big swings on election night.
Before the election results come in, $76,000–$76,600 is the first support zone. If it fails to hold, the next level to watch is $75,000. On the other hand, if risk sentiment improves after the election and ETF outflows stop, $79,500–$80,500 is the first resistance zone; Bitcoin needs to reclaim that range before we can talk about a bottom. Don’t chase shorts in a panic, and don’t buy the dip before the price has stabilized. Wait for the election-night uncertainty to clear.
Risk factors: Funds stolen from Binance are still being moved across chains; another security incident could deal a second blow to liquidity. If the midterm election produces a disputed result, risk assets may be sold off first as investors seek safety.
#比特币 #BTC
CoinDesk reported today that the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) on Bitcoin’s daily chart has turned bearish: the short-term moving averages have crossed below the long-term averages, while the long-term averages are also beginning to converge downward and flatten out. In plain English: short-term buyers have pulled back, and long-term investors are no longer stepping in aggressively. The market is reaching a consensus that “this isn’t a price to buy at just yet.” The same signal appeared in late May, after which Bitcoin fell below $60,000 within a week. But false signals also appeared in August and September last year, followed by a quick rebound—this indicator is no ironclad rule.
More worth watching is that the fundamentals are deteriorating at the same time. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) saw net outflows of $643 million on October 30, their largest since June, followed by another $399 million on November 2. Cumulative outflows reached $739 million over seven trading days. Institutional money is flowing out, not in.
The trigger was the fallout from Binance’s security incident. Reports circulated that Binance had suffered a cyberattack involving around $6.3 billion. On October 30, more than $1 billion in crypto futures positions were liquidated across the market, and the Fear and Greed Index fell to 26, in the fear zone. The depth of Binance’s Bitcoin order book briefly dropped by around 30%. Although net outflows have fallen from a peak of around $7 billion to $3.5 billion, and the deposit-to-withdrawal ratio has returned to 78%, the liquidity wound has yet to fully heal.
The chain of events is clear: a security shock undermines confidence → leveraged positions are forced to close → ETF money follows suit and exits → the price falls below the psychological $77,000 threshold → the GMMA confirms the bearish turn, giving bears a reason to keep probing lower.
The real variable tonight is the U.S. midterm election vote. Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin often rebounds after midterm elections. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of Bitcoin options expiring on November 4 has risen to around 43.5%, well above the 36% for longer-dated contracts. Implied volatility is the price the options market puts on future volatility; the higher it is, the more traders expect a major move. They’re all buying insurance against big swings on election night.
Before the election results come in, $76,000–$76,600 is the first support zone. If it fails to hold, the next level to watch is $75,000. On the other hand, if risk sentiment improves after the election and ETF outflows stop, $79,500–$80,500 is the first resistance zone; Bitcoin needs to reclaim that range before we can talk about a bottom. Don’t chase shorts in a panic, and don’t buy the dip before the price has stabilized. Wait for the election-night uncertainty to clear.
Risk factors: Funds stolen from Binance are still being moved across chains; another security incident could deal a second blow to liquidity. If the midterm election produces a disputed result, risk assets may be sold off first as investors seek safety.
#比特币 #BTC