✍️ What Goldman is betting on if Democrats take Congress
The odds of Democrats winning both chambers on Kalshi have reached 70%, while stocks that should benefit have fallen for three weeks. Goldman sees an opportunity in that gap.
The bank’s favorite is a basket of companies that benefit from the Obamacare health insurance program: hospitals, clinics, and insurers. Democrats want to restore the subsidies that expired at the end of 2025, which would mean fewer unpaid bills for these companies. Since the start of October, the basket has lagged the market excluding AI by 7%, so Goldman sees this as a good entry point.
Two other ideas are about electricity🔌. Utilities could benefit if new capacity is built to address high electricity prices, while makers of AI hardware could lose out if the cost of grid upgrades is passed on to data centers.
The problem with all these forecasts is that any law would have to be signed by Trump, and he has promised to veto anything from Democrats.
📊 The preliminary election results will be in on Wednesday, while any subsidies, if they do materialize, won’t come anytime soon. So the gap between expectations and the outcome could be substantial.
The odds of Democrats winning both chambers on Kalshi have reached 70%, while stocks that should benefit have fallen for three weeks. Goldman sees an opportunity in that gap.
The bank’s favorite is a basket of companies that benefit from the Obamacare health insurance program: hospitals, clinics, and insurers. Democrats want to restore the subsidies that expired at the end of 2025, which would mean fewer unpaid bills for these companies. Since the start of October, the basket has lagged the market excluding AI by 7%, so Goldman sees this as a good entry point.
Two other ideas are about electricity🔌. Utilities could benefit if new capacity is built to address high electricity prices, while makers of AI hardware could lose out if the cost of grid upgrades is passed on to data centers.
The problem with all these forecasts is that any law would have to be signed by Trump, and he has promised to veto anything from Democrats.
📊 The preliminary election results will be in on Wednesday, while any subsidies, if they do materialize, won’t come anytime soon. So the gap between expectations and the outcome could be substantial.
