Let’s lay out three scenarios for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls again:
Scenario one: The data comes in well above expectations—say, over 100,000—with hot wage growth too. The market won’t read that as “employment is strong”; it’ll see the Fed as having more reason to keep rates high, or even raise them again. The dollar strengthens, Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC and growth stocks come under pressure together. In this situation, the “sell the news” move can be especially brutal, because the market will be trading directly on the good news.
Scenario two: The data comes in well below expectations—say, under 30,000—with unemployment ticking up. Rate-hike bets would quickly unwind, rate-cut hopes would resurface, and risk assets could catch their breath. But A-Jian wants to remind you, folks, that there’s a hidden trap here: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, the rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the rally. To tell the difference, watch consumer spending and initial jobless claims over the next two weeks, rather than jumping to conclusions on nonfarm payrolls night.
Scenario three: The most uncomfortable one—the data comes in right around expectations, neither strong nor weak. The market gets no new information, so it keeps grinding, with volatility shifting to other events after Friday. In terms of positioning, this means don’t load up in advance and bet on a direction based on data that’s more likely to be uneventful.
In short, the main value of nonfarm payrolls is whether it can shift December rate expectations. That will determine positioning logic for at least the next three months. So on Friday night, watch things in this order: first, changes in interest rate futures pricing; then the dollar; then Bitcoin. Reverse that order, and you’re very likely to get caught by the first fake move.
That’s all. DYOR#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
Scenario one: The data comes in well above expectations—say, over 100,000—with hot wage growth too. The market won’t read that as “employment is strong”; it’ll see the Fed as having more reason to keep rates high, or even raise them again. The dollar strengthens, Treasury yields push higher, and $BTC and growth stocks come under pressure together. In this situation, the “sell the news” move can be especially brutal, because the market will be trading directly on the good news.
Scenario two: The data comes in well below expectations—say, under 30,000—with unemployment ticking up. Rate-hike bets would quickly unwind, rate-cut hopes would resurface, and risk assets could catch their breath. But A-Jian wants to remind you, folks, that there’s a hidden trap here: if the weakness is due to collapsing demand rather than a soft landing, the rebound is your chance to get out, not chase the rally. To tell the difference, watch consumer spending and initial jobless claims over the next two weeks, rather than jumping to conclusions on nonfarm payrolls night.
Scenario three: The most uncomfortable one—the data comes in right around expectations, neither strong nor weak. The market gets no new information, so it keeps grinding, with volatility shifting to other events after Friday. In terms of positioning, this means don’t load up in advance and bet on a direction based on data that’s more likely to be uneventful.
In short, the main value of nonfarm payrolls is whether it can shift December rate expectations. That will determine positioning logic for at least the next three months. So on Friday night, watch things in this order: first, changes in interest rate futures pricing; then the dollar; then Bitcoin. Reverse that order, and you’re very likely to get caught by the first fake move.
That’s all. DYOR#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？