Earnings beat expectations, but the stock plunged. Apple gave the market the same lesson last night: Wall Street never punishes the past quarter—it punishes the guidance for the next one.
First, the results themselves: they beat expectations almost across the board. Apple reported revenue of $114.48 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended September 26), above analysts’ expectations of $113.39 billion and up 11.7% year over year. Earnings per share came in at $2.10, above the $1.99 expected and up 13.5% year over year. Earnings per share is the company’s net profit divided among its shares, making it the most direct measure of its ability to make money. By business segment, iPhone revenue was $57.583 billion, above expectations of around $56.5 billion and up 15% year over year. Mac also beat expectations; iPad and some product lines fell short, while Services was broadly in line.
Greater China sales were $17.5 billion, up 21% year over year. That sounds impressive, but it was about $1 billion below market expectations—the first discordant note in the earnings report. The 47.9% gross margin also needs a caveat: about 1 percentage point came from tariff refunds, which also contributed $0.05 to earnings per share. Excluding that, the underlying gross margin was about 46.9% and earnings per share about $2.05. Gross margin is the proportion of revenue left over after subtracting the direct cost of making a device. A decline means Apple is earning less on every device it sells.
The real killer was in the guidance. Guidance is a company’s own forecast for the next quarter, and when Wall Street looks at earnings, half its attention is on the past and half on this forecast. Apple expects revenue growth of 7% to 10% year over year in the holiday quarter (the first quarter of fiscal 2027). That is above analysts’ average expectation of 6.4%, but clearly slower than this quarter’s 12%. Its gross margin guidance of 45% to 46% is not only below the average expectation of 46.3%, but nearly 3 percentage points below the 47.9% reported this quarter. Guidance for Services growth of 8% to 9% is also below expectations of 10.7%. The holiday quarter is Apple’s biggest sales season of the year, and telling the market “growth is slowing, margins are thinning” at precisely this time made the stock’s reaction predictable: it fell 1.8% during regular trading, dropped as much as 4.5% after hours, then pared its losses to 2.7% after new CEO John Ternus said on the earnings call that he had “never been more confident about the future.”
Why was the guidance weak? The chain of events is clear. First, memory chips are getting more expensive. Since June, Apple has raised iPhone prices by as much as $100. This quarter was the first full quarter after the price hikes, but the savings from higher prices are being eaten up by rising costs for memory chips and other components, putting direct pressure on gross margins. Second, the product launch schedule is out of sync. This quarter included only about nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales, while the standard iPhone 18 and the new iPhone Air won’t launch until the first half of 2027. In the past, Apple unveiled the whole lineup at its September event; this time, it launched only the Pro models, effectively pushing some demand into next year. Third, Services is also slowing. Growth guidance of 8% to 9% is unusually low in recent years, suggesting that even Apple’s most profitable and stable business is struggling to withstand macroeconomic headwinds.
This earnings report also comes against a broader backdrop: Apple had been a safe haven during this artificial-intelligence pullback. Over the past six months, its stock had risen 22% and its market cap had grown by more than $1 trillion. Last Friday, it had just reclaimed the title of world’s most valuable company from Nvidia, at $5.03 trillion versus $4.93 trillion. On November 2, the tech sector fell 2.66%, its third consecutive decline; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.37%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.51%, closing at its lowest level since July 31 and retreating 3.55% from its October 6 record high. When even a safe haven starts catching up on the downside, it shows that the sell-off has spread from chip stocks to the most dependable large-cap stocks. Palantir Technologies, which reported earnings the same evening, posted 96% year-over-year revenue growth and sharply raised its full-year guidance, but even that wasn’t enough to earn applause from the market. When everyone is waiting for a reason to sell, even good earnings merely provide liquidity for selling.
Looking ahead, the short-term pressure has not yet fully played out. The U.S. market open tonight will be the first test: whether Apple can hold on to its after-hours losses, or fall another 7.35% the next day as it did in July, will determine the severity of this correction. Advanced Micro Devices reports after the close tonight, making it the next test for the AI hardware supply chain. Today is also Election Day for the U.S. midterms, and Friday brings the October jobs report. Almost every day, there is a new variable that could change the market’s direction. For the medium term, there are two possible scenarios: if memory chip prices stabilize and demand for the iPhone 18 Pro carries through to the holiday quarter, this decline could be a buying opportunity after a valuation reset. But if gross margins keep falling and Services growth slows another notch, Apple—trading at about 33 times projected fiscal 2027 earnings—has almost no valuation cushion. Even great companies fall; the only question is whether costs can stabilize and demand can hold up after the drop.
#苹果财报 #USStocks
First, the results themselves: they beat expectations almost across the board. Apple reported revenue of $114.48 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended September 26), above analysts’ expectations of $113.39 billion and up 11.7% year over year. Earnings per share came in at $2.10, above the $1.99 expected and up 13.5% year over year. Earnings per share is the company’s net profit divided among its shares, making it the most direct measure of its ability to make money. By business segment, iPhone revenue was $57.583 billion, above expectations of around $56.5 billion and up 15% year over year. Mac also beat expectations; iPad and some product lines fell short, while Services was broadly in line.
Greater China sales were $17.5 billion, up 21% year over year. That sounds impressive, but it was about $1 billion below market expectations—the first discordant note in the earnings report. The 47.9% gross margin also needs a caveat: about 1 percentage point came from tariff refunds, which also contributed $0.05 to earnings per share. Excluding that, the underlying gross margin was about 46.9% and earnings per share about $2.05. Gross margin is the proportion of revenue left over after subtracting the direct cost of making a device. A decline means Apple is earning less on every device it sells.
The real killer was in the guidance. Guidance is a company’s own forecast for the next quarter, and when Wall Street looks at earnings, half its attention is on the past and half on this forecast. Apple expects revenue growth of 7% to 10% year over year in the holiday quarter (the first quarter of fiscal 2027). That is above analysts’ average expectation of 6.4%, but clearly slower than this quarter’s 12%. Its gross margin guidance of 45% to 46% is not only below the average expectation of 46.3%, but nearly 3 percentage points below the 47.9% reported this quarter. Guidance for Services growth of 8% to 9% is also below expectations of 10.7%. The holiday quarter is Apple’s biggest sales season of the year, and telling the market “growth is slowing, margins are thinning” at precisely this time made the stock’s reaction predictable: it fell 1.8% during regular trading, dropped as much as 4.5% after hours, then pared its losses to 2.7% after new CEO John Ternus said on the earnings call that he had “never been more confident about the future.”
Why was the guidance weak? The chain of events is clear. First, memory chips are getting more expensive. Since June, Apple has raised iPhone prices by as much as $100. This quarter was the first full quarter after the price hikes, but the savings from higher prices are being eaten up by rising costs for memory chips and other components, putting direct pressure on gross margins. Second, the product launch schedule is out of sync. This quarter included only about nine days of iPhone 18 Pro sales, while the standard iPhone 18 and the new iPhone Air won’t launch until the first half of 2027. In the past, Apple unveiled the whole lineup at its September event; this time, it launched only the Pro models, effectively pushing some demand into next year. Third, Services is also slowing. Growth guidance of 8% to 9% is unusually low in recent years, suggesting that even Apple’s most profitable and stable business is struggling to withstand macroeconomic headwinds.
This earnings report also comes against a broader backdrop: Apple had been a safe haven during this artificial-intelligence pullback. Over the past six months, its stock had risen 22% and its market cap had grown by more than $1 trillion. Last Friday, it had just reclaimed the title of world’s most valuable company from Nvidia, at $5.03 trillion versus $4.93 trillion. On November 2, the tech sector fell 2.66%, its third consecutive decline; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.37%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07%, and the S&P 500 lost 0.51%, closing at its lowest level since July 31 and retreating 3.55% from its October 6 record high. When even a safe haven starts catching up on the downside, it shows that the sell-off has spread from chip stocks to the most dependable large-cap stocks. Palantir Technologies, which reported earnings the same evening, posted 96% year-over-year revenue growth and sharply raised its full-year guidance, but even that wasn’t enough to earn applause from the market. When everyone is waiting for a reason to sell, even good earnings merely provide liquidity for selling.
Looking ahead, the short-term pressure has not yet fully played out. The U.S. market open tonight will be the first test: whether Apple can hold on to its after-hours losses, or fall another 7.35% the next day as it did in July, will determine the severity of this correction. Advanced Micro Devices reports after the close tonight, making it the next test for the AI hardware supply chain. Today is also Election Day for the U.S. midterms, and Friday brings the October jobs report. Almost every day, there is a new variable that could change the market’s direction. For the medium term, there are two possible scenarios: if memory chip prices stabilize and demand for the iPhone 18 Pro carries through to the holiday quarter, this decline could be a buying opportunity after a valuation reset. But if gross margins keep falling and Services growth slows another notch, Apple—trading at about 33 times projected fiscal 2027 earnings—has almost no valuation cushion. Even great companies fall; the only question is whether costs can stabilize and demand can hold up after the drop.
#苹果财报 #USStocks