It’s election day, and that chart is making the rounds in my feed again:
2014: -61%, 2018: -52%, 2022: -26%
The implication is that Bitcoin always takes a dive after the midterms.
I went out of my way to check whether the numbers were calculated consistently. This chart doesn’t hold up under scrutiny 📉
Using the same yardstick—the change from the election-day closing price to the subsequent closing-price low—
2014 was -46%, 2018 was -50%, and 2022 was just -15%.
That -61% you see online can’t be arrived at using any low.
The -26% figure only works if you move the starting point to the high three days before the election.
Three numbers, three different starting points—it’s simply not a fair comparison.
What stings even more is that every big drop coincided with something else.
November 8, 2022 was both Election Day and the day FTX halted withdrawals.
In mid-November 2018, there was the BCH hard fork hash war.
And the 2014 slump was an extension of the bear market that followed Mt. Gox.
Blaming all of that on the elections is a bit unfair to the elections.
I’m not saying elections don’t matter.
The makeup of Congress can certainly affect the pace of crypto legislation and regulation.
But we’ve only seen this happen three times, and each time it overlapped with a halving cycle and unexpected events.
That’s not enough data to support a rule that prices must fall.
Today $BTC is back near $76,900, down about 1.6% over 24 hours.
Rather than betting based on an old chart with inconsistent numbers,
why not wait for the election results, then see how Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report shapes interest rate expectations?
Have you just seen this chart for the first time, or have you known about it for a while?
#市场观察 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
2014: -61%, 2018: -52%, 2022: -26%
The implication is that Bitcoin always takes a dive after the midterms.
I went out of my way to check whether the numbers were calculated consistently. This chart doesn’t hold up under scrutiny 📉
Using the same yardstick—the change from the election-day closing price to the subsequent closing-price low—
2014 was -46%, 2018 was -50%, and 2022 was just -15%.
That -61% you see online can’t be arrived at using any low.
The -26% figure only works if you move the starting point to the high three days before the election.
Three numbers, three different starting points—it’s simply not a fair comparison.
What stings even more is that every big drop coincided with something else.
November 8, 2022 was both Election Day and the day FTX halted withdrawals.
In mid-November 2018, there was the BCH hard fork hash war.
And the 2014 slump was an extension of the bear market that followed Mt. Gox.
Blaming all of that on the elections is a bit unfair to the elections.
I’m not saying elections don’t matter.
The makeup of Congress can certainly affect the pace of crypto legislation and regulation.
But we’ve only seen this happen three times, and each time it overlapped with a halving cycle and unexpected events.
That’s not enough data to support a rule that prices must fall.
Today $BTC is back near $76,900, down about 1.6% over 24 hours.
Rather than betting based on an old chart with inconsistent numbers,
why not wait for the election results, then see how Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report shapes interest rate expectations?
Have you just seen this chart for the first time, or have you known about it for a while?
#市场观察 #Bitcoin
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.