đ Down 7.4% in a day; talks make no breakthrough
November 2, the day before the midterm elections. WTI fell 7.4%, closing at $96.46, its biggest one-day drop since July 27. Brent fell 7.6%, closing at $104.77.
Oil prices rose more than 10% in October, when the market was pricing in âfighting after the elections.â On Monday, it swung the other way, pricing in âa deal.â
The talks themselves were less straightforward. Qatarâs mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran, then moved to Doha on Saturday. That round of weekend talks ended without a deal. Iran says contact is ongoing. Tehran also floated this: if a deal is reached, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within two days.
The terms were stated plainly. Foreign Minister Araghchi laid out three demands: lift the sanctions, reduce the U.S. military presence in the region to its previous level, and lift the blockade. The first is sanctions.
Meanwhile, the other side hasnât let up. On Saturday, the supreme leader called on the military to respond to âany threat, at any level and of any kindâ with a response that is âimmediate, weighty, and unrestricted by geography.â Netanyahu spoke with Trump about next steps. AP, citing officials, reported that Netanyahu was pushing for a new round of strikes; Israel denied applying pressure. The WSJ and NYT both reported that the U.S. was preparing for action after the elections.
McKay of TD Securities put it plainly: with no concrete resolution to the war, and attacks on ships and by the Houthis continuing, diplomatic headlines alone wonât make the risk premium disappear. Heâs right.
Crypto barely reacted. BTC was at $76,784, down 1.4% over 24 hours. On the same day, the S&P fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.894%, and gold was at 3,956.
The oil market priced âlifting the sanctionsâ into prices that same day. The crypto market didnât budge.
Why? For the past eight months, Iranian oil has moved through a shadow fleet, while money has flowed through stablecoins and over-the-counter desks. When Tether responded to a Senate report in October, it said its proactive freezes had reduced Iran-linked USDT flows by 94%, and that it had frozen around $550 million in Iran-linked funds so far this year. If sanctions are really lifted, that channel will have to shrink further.
Oil has already priced in a deal. The stablecoin channel has no quote, and Bitcoin hasnât priced this in either.
Keep an eye on two things next: after the November 3 vote, will Washingtonâs first decision be to strike or sign? And will Iran turn âlifting the sanctionsâ from a condition into a prerequisite?
Oil moves first, the channel follows. Crypto hasnât woken up yet.
#äžæŹèȘćœé 瀟ćșBaoluoćžćè”æŹ #Bitcoin #Iran
November 2, the day before the midterm elections. WTI fell 7.4%, closing at $96.46, its biggest one-day drop since July 27. Brent fell 7.6%, closing at $104.77.
Oil prices rose more than 10% in October, when the market was pricing in âfighting after the elections.â On Monday, it swung the other way, pricing in âa deal.â
The talks themselves were less straightforward. Qatarâs mediators spent more than 12 hours in Tehran, then moved to Doha on Saturday. That round of weekend talks ended without a deal. Iran says contact is ongoing. Tehran also floated this: if a deal is reached, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen within two days.
The terms were stated plainly. Foreign Minister Araghchi laid out three demands: lift the sanctions, reduce the U.S. military presence in the region to its previous level, and lift the blockade. The first is sanctions.
Meanwhile, the other side hasnât let up. On Saturday, the supreme leader called on the military to respond to âany threat, at any level and of any kindâ with a response that is âimmediate, weighty, and unrestricted by geography.â Netanyahu spoke with Trump about next steps. AP, citing officials, reported that Netanyahu was pushing for a new round of strikes; Israel denied applying pressure. The WSJ and NYT both reported that the U.S. was preparing for action after the elections.
McKay of TD Securities put it plainly: with no concrete resolution to the war, and attacks on ships and by the Houthis continuing, diplomatic headlines alone wonât make the risk premium disappear. Heâs right.
Crypto barely reacted. BTC was at $76,784, down 1.4% over 24 hours. On the same day, the S&P fell 0.5%, the Nasdaq fell 1.1%, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.894%, and gold was at 3,956.
The oil market priced âlifting the sanctionsâ into prices that same day. The crypto market didnât budge.
Why? For the past eight months, Iranian oil has moved through a shadow fleet, while money has flowed through stablecoins and over-the-counter desks. When Tether responded to a Senate report in October, it said its proactive freezes had reduced Iran-linked USDT flows by 94%, and that it had frozen around $550 million in Iran-linked funds so far this year. If sanctions are really lifted, that channel will have to shrink further.
Oil has already priced in a deal. The stablecoin channel has no quote, and Bitcoin hasnât priced this in either.
Keep an eye on two things next: after the November 3 vote, will Washingtonâs first decision be to strike or sign? And will Iran turn âlifting the sanctionsâ from a condition into a prerequisite?
Oil moves first, the channel follows. Crypto hasnât woken up yet.
#äžæŹèȘćœé 瀟ćșBaoluoćžćè”æŹ #Bitcoin #Iran
