#On-chain Metrics Analysis
BTC: Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
This ratio compares realized profits with realized losses for coins held for more than approximately 155 days: above 1.0 indicates profit-taking is dominant, while below 1.0 indicates that long-term holders are also selling at a loss. Crossing back above 1.0 is an important signal for observing shifts in macro sentiment and identifying underwater capitulation and cycle turning points.
Current status · Underwater zone · LTH profit/loss ratio 0.453
The current 7-day smoothed ratio is 0.453, below 1.0, indicating that loss realization among long-term holders is dominant; the 30-day average is 0.379. The current underwater period has lasted 70 days since 2026-05-14, with a 7-day change of +0.126 (recovering), and is −0.547 away from the 1.0 pivot. On-chain date: 2026-07-22; BTC spot price: approximately $77,905 (Binance Spot).
Historical reference: Historically, the underwater red zone has spanned deep bear-market phases. Comparison samples include the 2022 low of approximately 0.08, lasting 335 days (2022-05-21→2023-04-28); the brief 2023 dip to 0.32, lasting 19 days (2023-07-28→2023-08-15); and two periods in 2026: 0.38, lasting 87 days (2026-02-09→2026-05-09), and the current period, with a low of approximately 0.29, lasting 70 days (2026-05-14→2026-07-22). Ranges: \u003c1.0 underwater capitulation, 1.0–1.5 pivot recovery, 1.5–20 profit-dominant, \u003e20 high-level distribution. The underwater red zone is not a single-day bottom-fishing signal; it is more useful for assessing whether long-term holders are undergoing sustained capitulation and redistribution. A clearer signal of recovery from the right-hand side emerges only when the ratio bottoms and then breaks back above 1.0; confirmation should still be sought from spot demand, realized price, liquidity, and price structure. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
BTC: Entity-Adjusted Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio
This ratio compares realized profits with realized losses for coins held for more than approximately 155 days: above 1.0 indicates profit-taking is dominant, while below 1.0 indicates that long-term holders are also selling at a loss. Crossing back above 1.0 is an important signal for observing shifts in macro sentiment and identifying underwater capitulation and cycle turning points.
Current status · Underwater zone · LTH profit/loss ratio 0.453
The current 7-day smoothed ratio is 0.453, below 1.0, indicating that loss realization among long-term holders is dominant; the 30-day average is 0.379. The current underwater period has lasted 70 days since 2026-05-14, with a 7-day change of +0.126 (recovering), and is −0.547 away from the 1.0 pivot. On-chain date: 2026-07-22; BTC spot price: approximately $77,905 (Binance Spot).
Historical reference: Historically, the underwater red zone has spanned deep bear-market phases. Comparison samples include the 2022 low of approximately 0.08, lasting 335 days (2022-05-21→2023-04-28); the brief 2023 dip to 0.32, lasting 19 days (2023-07-28→2023-08-15); and two periods in 2026: 0.38, lasting 87 days (2026-02-09→2026-05-09), and the current period, with a low of approximately 0.29, lasting 70 days (2026-05-14→2026-07-22). Ranges: \u003c1.0 underwater capitulation, 1.0–1.5 pivot recovery, 1.5–20 profit-dominant, \u003e20 high-level distribution. The underwater red zone is not a single-day bottom-fishing signal; it is more useful for assessing whether long-term holders are undergoing sustained capitulation and redistribution. A clearer signal of recovery from the right-hand side emerges only when the ratio bottoms and then breaks back above 1.0; confirmation should still be sought from spot demand, realized price, liquidity, and price structure. For cycle research only; this is not investment advice.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
