$AAVE 's 15m volume-backed drop is pretty interesting. Volume hit 2.19 times normal, and the price closed below the lower end of the last 20 5m candles. The active trade delta was -0.5%, and the buy/sell ratio was 0.99—this looks bearish, but the selling pressure actually isn't that intense.
What really caught my eye was OI: 1h futures were down 0.35%, with notional down 525K, while 15m OI actually edged up 0.15%. The price is falling, but OI hasn't seen a large-scale pullback, so structurally this looks more like new shorts entering than longs being forced out. The funding rate is also sitting at a recent high, so shorts are paying a steep cost.
My thinking is simple: the active trade delta isn't aggressive enough to match the surge in volume, so this kind of drop could easily be a fakeout. Don't chase shorts yet—see if it can reclaim the lower boundary; if it can't hold above it, then reassess. Notional change ranks #37 across the whole pool. There's definitely activity in $AAVE today, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's headed down.
What really caught my eye was OI: 1h futures were down 0.35%, with notional down 525K, while 15m OI actually edged up 0.15%. The price is falling, but OI hasn't seen a large-scale pullback, so structurally this looks more like new shorts entering than longs being forced out. The funding rate is also sitting at a recent high, so shorts are paying a steep cost.
My thinking is simple: the active trade delta isn't aggressive enough to match the surge in volume, so this kind of drop could easily be a fakeout. Don't chase shorts yet—see if it can reclaim the lower boundary; if it can't hold above it, then reassess. Notional change ranks #37 across the whole pool. There's definitely activity in $AAVE today, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's headed down.
