Is now a good time to buy the dip?
Since the rate hike in September, I stayed bullish all the way up to 85,500–87,500. Once we reached that level, market sentiment was extremely greedy, so I switched from long to short and expected a deep correction, with a final target of 72,600–69,600. Throughout October, I never called for longs or wavered; my outlook was entirely bearish. You can check all my records above and watch the livestream replays.
The price has now fallen to around 76,000 at its lowest, and many people are starting to waver. Of course, they may simply not want to give back their profits and want to get out early. That’s neither good nor bad—either is fine, because catching the very top or bottom is indeed difficult.
Here are a few thoughts on what lies ahead:
1. Although the current pullback is around 10,000 points, I don’t think it’s deep enough. ETH may have corrected enough, but BTC definitely hasn’t. Why has BTC been weak these past couple of days while ETH has been strong? Because ETH was oversold.
2. Market sentiment hasn’t reached extreme fear yet; we only entered the fear phase recently, and the rebound was already extremely strong. This shows that people still have a lot of confidence in the bulls. As long as fear can’t spread, there’s no way to set the bull market in motion. Remember, when the price came down from 87,000, sentiment was extremely greedy. The reverse will also be true on the way up.
3. The technical pullback still isn’t enough. Despite the sizable drop, we’ve only returned to the trading range from before the rate hike—that is, the 81,000–76,000 range. This level needs to break to sweep liquidity and shake out the less-convicted long positions, allowing fear to spread through the market. Only then can we see a bigger rally.
4. At this stage, the market is being kept in this range to wear everyone down. Once those who shorted at the highs can’t hold on, and those who went long at the lows have exited, the market will move in a new direction. Short in the 79,300–79,700 resistance zone; selling the rebound remains the main strategy.
Overall, I still expect prices to fall. 76,000 must break. Whether the next target is 72,600 or 69,600 depends on the market’s reaction; there’s no way to say for certain which level will trigger a rise. But this decline will find a bottom, and it won’t be far off, because a big rally is still ahead. #BTC
Since the rate hike in September, I stayed bullish all the way up to 85,500–87,500. Once we reached that level, market sentiment was extremely greedy, so I switched from long to short and expected a deep correction, with a final target of 72,600–69,600. Throughout October, I never called for longs or wavered; my outlook was entirely bearish. You can check all my records above and watch the livestream replays.
The price has now fallen to around 76,000 at its lowest, and many people are starting to waver. Of course, they may simply not want to give back their profits and want to get out early. That’s neither good nor bad—either is fine, because catching the very top or bottom is indeed difficult.
Here are a few thoughts on what lies ahead:
1. Although the current pullback is around 10,000 points, I don’t think it’s deep enough. ETH may have corrected enough, but BTC definitely hasn’t. Why has BTC been weak these past couple of days while ETH has been strong? Because ETH was oversold.
2. Market sentiment hasn’t reached extreme fear yet; we only entered the fear phase recently, and the rebound was already extremely strong. This shows that people still have a lot of confidence in the bulls. As long as fear can’t spread, there’s no way to set the bull market in motion. Remember, when the price came down from 87,000, sentiment was extremely greedy. The reverse will also be true on the way up.
3. The technical pullback still isn’t enough. Despite the sizable drop, we’ve only returned to the trading range from before the rate hike—that is, the 81,000–76,000 range. This level needs to break to sweep liquidity and shake out the less-convicted long positions, allowing fear to spread through the market. Only then can we see a bigger rally.
4. At this stage, the market is being kept in this range to wear everyone down. Once those who shorted at the highs can’t hold on, and those who went long at the lows have exited, the market will move in a new direction. Short in the 79,300–79,700 resistance zone; selling the rebound remains the main strategy.
Overall, I still expect prices to fall. 76,000 must break. Whether the next target is 72,600 or 69,600 depends on the market’s reaction; there’s no way to say for certain which level will trigger a rise. But this decline will find a bottom, and it won’t be far off, because a big rally is still ahead. #BTC
