Stablecoins shrink by $4.2B in a week
Prices have stopped falling, but capital on the sidelines is still leaving.
According to DefiLlama, the total stablecoin market cap was about $298.34 billion on 11/1, down about $4.26 billion in a week (from about $302.6 billion on 10/25). It has declined for four consecutive days since 10/29. USDT was about $179.30 billion, down about $3.12 billion in a week and about $4.55 billion in a month; USDC was about $71.64 billion, also down about $110 million in a week. Both major stablecoins are shrinking at the same time—not a shift from one to the other, but an exit.
Sentiment has improved slightly: the Fear and Greed Index rose from 30 (11/1) to 34 (11/2), but remains in fear territory. The Binance BTCUSDT retail long/short ratio is about 2.25, with longs at around 69%—it’s mainly retail traders trying to buy the dip.
In a nutshell: the price has stopped falling thanks to retail traders adding to their long positions, while the supply of stablecoins—which represents fresh buying power—is still flowing out. Without new money coming in to take over, this isn’t a solid bottom, and any rebound could be choppy. The habit I picked up from TradFi is to look at capital flows before sentiment. The shrinking stablecoin supply stands out more than the index’s recovery.
A few things to watch today (Asia/Shanghai):
· Binance’s preliminary Proof of Reserves (PoR) snapshot, expected to be published on 11/2
· 22:30 US stock market open; 23:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI
· Tomorrow, 11/3: US midterm elections
Rather than guessing where the bottom is, keep an eye on whether “new money is coming back.” For example, set a rule: reassess risk-asset exposure only after the total stablecoin supply has increased for 3 consecutive days. Until then, keep risk allocation relatively low. A clearly stated rule can be checked every day.
Would you look at stablecoin flows first, or retail positioning?
OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering US stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities, built on ERC-4626 vaults. Strategy managers turn their allocation ideas into public, trackable on-chain strategies: what conditions trigger adding to a position, and what conditions call for staying in low-volatility assets—all can be verified afterward. You can start by following managers you’re interested in and starring their strategies, then decide whether to subscribe.
Prices have stopped falling, but capital on the sidelines is still leaving.
According to DefiLlama, the total stablecoin market cap was about $298.34 billion on 11/1, down about $4.26 billion in a week (from about $302.6 billion on 10/25). It has declined for four consecutive days since 10/29. USDT was about $179.30 billion, down about $3.12 billion in a week and about $4.55 billion in a month; USDC was about $71.64 billion, also down about $110 million in a week. Both major stablecoins are shrinking at the same time—not a shift from one to the other, but an exit.
Sentiment has improved slightly: the Fear and Greed Index rose from 30 (11/1) to 34 (11/2), but remains in fear territory. The Binance BTCUSDT retail long/short ratio is about 2.25, with longs at around 69%—it’s mainly retail traders trying to buy the dip.
In a nutshell: the price has stopped falling thanks to retail traders adding to their long positions, while the supply of stablecoins—which represents fresh buying power—is still flowing out. Without new money coming in to take over, this isn’t a solid bottom, and any rebound could be choppy. The habit I picked up from TradFi is to look at capital flows before sentiment. The shrinking stablecoin supply stands out more than the index’s recovery.
A few things to watch today (Asia/Shanghai):
· Binance’s preliminary Proof of Reserves (PoR) snapshot, expected to be published on 11/2
· 22:30 US stock market open; 23:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI
· Tomorrow, 11/3: US midterm elections
Rather than guessing where the bottom is, keep an eye on whether “new money is coming back.” For example, set a rule: reassess risk-asset exposure only after the total stablecoin supply has increased for 3 consecutive days. Until then, keep risk allocation relatively low. A clearly stated rule can be checked every day.
Would you look at stablecoin flows first, or retail positioning?
OWL is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform covering US stocks, ETFs, crypto assets, and commodities, built on ERC-4626 vaults. Strategy managers turn their allocation ideas into public, trackable on-chain strategies: what conditions trigger adding to a position, and what conditions call for staying in low-volatility assets—all can be verified afterward. You can start by following managers you’re interested in and starring their strategies, then decide whether to subscribe.