【November 2 | Global Markets News and Data Analysis】
1. Macro outlook for the week: U.S. midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls take center stage; Apple and AMD earnings are due for U.S. stocks.
2. Data: Binance saw net outflows of $6.148 billion over the past 24 hours and will publish its proof of reserves on its PoR website today.
3. Analysis: The BTC Seller Exhaustion Index has retested the cycle’s second-lowest point; a bear-market bottom may already be confirmed.
4. U.S. stock index futures extend gains, with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 1%.
Global markets face multiple overlapping catalysts this week. The U.S. midterm elections will determine every seat in the House and some Senate seats. The results will directly shape the fiscal and tariff policy latitude available to the Trump administration for the remainder of its term. Apple’s first earnings report under its new CEO and AMD’s results will serve as key tests of sentiment around AI trades after recent setbacks. On the data front, strong October nonfarm payrolls could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, affecting the direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold. The outcome of Israel’s election and the resumption of Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations are also geopolitical variables.
For crypto markets, expectations of tighter macro liquidity are a headwind, but Bitcoin’s technical indicators are sending positive signals. The Seller Exhaustion Index has triggered a signal again. The indicator gave a precise buying-the-dip signal in August, and BTC’s latest pullback to around $77,000 has formed the cycle’s second-lowest point, just above the August low. The indicator requires both low volatility and high losses, and has historically appeared only at cycle bottoms, suggesting that selling pressure may now be close to exhaustion. If macro sentiment stabilizes, BTC could form a second bottom or even rebound; conversely, if data comes in above expectations and prompts further rate hikes, it could remain under pressure in the short term. Overall, the direction of fiscal policy after the midterm elections and economic data will jointly determine investors’ risk appetite, and crypto markets are likely to remain highly volatile as they await a clearer direction.
1. Macro outlook for the week: U.S. midterm elections and nonfarm payrolls take center stage; Apple and AMD earnings are due for U.S. stocks.
2. Data: Binance saw net outflows of $6.148 billion over the past 24 hours and will publish its proof of reserves on its PoR website today.
3. Analysis: The BTC Seller Exhaustion Index has retested the cycle’s second-lowest point; a bear-market bottom may already be confirmed.
4. U.S. stock index futures extend gains, with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 1%.
Global markets face multiple overlapping catalysts this week. The U.S. midterm elections will determine every seat in the House and some Senate seats. The results will directly shape the fiscal and tariff policy latitude available to the Trump administration for the remainder of its term. Apple’s first earnings report under its new CEO and AMD’s results will serve as key tests of sentiment around AI trades after recent setbacks. On the data front, strong October nonfarm payrolls could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in December, affecting the direction of the dollar, U.S. Treasuries and gold. The outcome of Israel’s election and the resumption of Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations are also geopolitical variables.
For crypto markets, expectations of tighter macro liquidity are a headwind, but Bitcoin’s technical indicators are sending positive signals. The Seller Exhaustion Index has triggered a signal again. The indicator gave a precise buying-the-dip signal in August, and BTC’s latest pullback to around $77,000 has formed the cycle’s second-lowest point, just above the August low. The indicator requires both low volatility and high losses, and has historically appeared only at cycle bottoms, suggesting that selling pressure may now be close to exhaustion. If macro sentiment stabilizes, BTC could form a second bottom or even rebound; conversely, if data comes in above expectations and prompts further rate hikes, it could remain under pressure in the short term. Overall, the direction of fiscal policy after the midterm elections and economic data will jointly determine investors’ risk appetite, and crypto markets are likely to remain highly volatile as they await a clearer direction.
