Blockchain revenue in 2026 is expected to reach around $100 billion, down 28%, while the share from institutional players and the traditional economy rises to 30%.

According to research by investment firm 1kx, total blockchain industry revenue reached $138 billion in 2025, close to the 2021 record of $145 billion. However, declining crypto asset prices and weakening trading activity mean revenue in 2026 is forecast to fall to around $100 billion. The research is based on data from more than 2,600 protocols, the financial results of 104 publicly listed companies, and additional sources through the end of Q3 2026.

The revenue mix remains heavily weighted toward financial services. Decentralized finance (DeFi), centralized exchanges, and other financial services are projected to generate $65 billion, equivalent to 66% of the industry total. Blockchain infrastructure, including transaction fees, mining, and staking, contributes $22 billion. The remaining $12 billion comes from consumer applications, crypto wallets, and decentralized infrastructure networks.

The pressure was clearly visible in the first half of the year. Financial-sector revenue fell 16% year over year, from $38.7 billion to $32.6 billion, with on-chain transaction fees down 31%, off-chain fees down 18%, and centralized exchange revenue down 25%. Infrastructure revenue dropped 39%, as network fees halved despite an 18% increase in transactions and monthly active users surpassing 200 million, up more than 24 million from a year earlier. In other words, usage increased, but the value generated per transaction fell sharply.

New revenue streams from the traditional economy

The most notable development is the structural shift. In 2021, institutional and enterprise applications accounted for only about 7% of industry revenue. By the end of 2026, their combined share could reach 30%, including 12% from institutional clients and crypto asset holders, and 18% from blockchain applications in the traditional economy.

Institutional revenue in the first half of the year reached $6.1 billion, below the $6.8 billion recorded over the same period a year earlier. In contrast, revenue tied to the traditional economy rose 58%, from $5.1 billion to $8 billion. Prediction markets were a standout driver, with third-quarter fee revenue reaching $1.66 billion, about 19 times the $86 million recorded a year earlier, concentrated mainly at Kalshi and Polymarket; 1kx forecasts full-year fees will exceed $4 billion. Trading volume in derivatives tied to tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) reached $2.23 trillion in the third quarter, about 122 times higher, accounting for 18% of perpetual futures volume. Spending on crypto asset cards also nearly tripled, to $3.38 billion.

The revenue share of publicly listed companies rose from 7% in 2022 to 16% in 2026, even as their absolute revenue is expected to decline from $18.3 billion to around $16 billion. In the market, an index of tokens with revenue-sharing mechanisms for holders rose 82% from the start of the year through September 30, while Bitcoin fell about 10%. The number of protocols using these mechanisms hit a record 283 in the third quarter.

1kx expects industry revenue to recover from 2027, driven by institutional capital, tokenization, and practical applications, alongside the convergence of crypto assets and traditional securities. According to the analysts, future growth will depend increasingly less on speculative trading.