$IDOL It rose from 0.0068 on October 18 to 0.0314 on October 30—4.6x in 12 days—and the project team hasn’t said a word.
Stranger still, you’d expect the tokens unlocked at this point to be moving to exchanges. But after checking every transaction involving the 490 million tokens unlocked this year, I found that 97.8% are still sitting where they were.
This article covers three things: whether this coin is worth anything, who might be selling this time, and what to watch next.
▍What is this coin for?
MEET48 combines AI with idol fan economics, backed by the SNH48 IP. IDOL runs on BSC, has a total supply of 4.8 billion tokens, and launched in June 2025. It was Binance Wallet’s 22nd IDO, with demand exceeding the offering by 192 times.
The token's main use is voting for idols. In last December's annual election, 28.99 million tokens were spent on votes over 7 days; 8.7 million of those were burned in January this year. The documentation says 60% would be burned, but in reality only 30% was.
The math is simple: one event burned 8.7 million tokens, while 100 million tokens unlock each month—11.5 times the amount burned. I couldn't find any terms for dividends paid to token holders, nor any dollar revenue reported by the project.
So yes, people use the platform. But the token's value can't support the current unlock rate.
▍Where did the unlocked tokens go?
The official unlock schedule is clear: 100.2 million tokens are released on the 11th of every month—36.2 million for the community, 30 million for the team, 18 million for the ecosystem, 8 million for strategic investors, 6 million for private investors, and 2 million for advisors.
I traced all six transfers from October 11. Each one first went from a vesting contract to a one-time-use wallet, then moved on a few minutes later. Here's the cumulative total for this year:
· Community: 206.2 million tokens, all in multisigs, untouched
· Team: 150 million tokens, all in multisigs, untouched
· Ecosystem: 54 million tokens, all in multisigs, untouched
· Strategic investors: 40 million tokens, all in one regular wallet, untouched
· Advisors: 10 million tokens, all in multisigs, untouched
· Private investors: 30 million tokens; 19.01 million remain, and 10.99 million have been moved
That's 490.2 million tokens in total. Only 10.99 million have moved, and all of them did so before October. Not a single token left these wallets during this huge rally.
▍Don't rush to praise the team for its integrity
I looked into the signers of these multisigs and found that all six have the same group of signers.
The community, team, ecosystem, strategic investors, private investors, and advisors each have a multisig with the same four signers. Any three of them can authorize a transfer. The team's tokens and the investors' tokens are controlled by the same group.
What does that mean? Those 479 million tokens aren't locked—they're unlocked but haven't been sold yet. They can be moved at any time, without waiting for any particular date. At the current price, they're worth about $12 million.
Another 2.927 billion tokens remain in vesting contracts. The team's and investors' allocations are scheduled to be released through mid-2028.
▍The circulating supply is almost twice what's reported
Many websites show IDOL's circulating supply as 1.046 billion tokens. That's the figure from launch day, and it hasn't been updated in over a year.
Based on on-chain balances: 4.8 billion minus the 2.927 billion in vesting contracts equals 1.873 billion unlocked tokens. Binance Alpha shows 1.888 billion, which is close.
At the same price, the market cap is completely different:
· Based on 1.046 billion tokens: about $26.3 million
· Based on the 1.873 billion unlocked tokens: about $47.1 million
· Subtracting the project's 479 million tokens leaves about 1.39 billion actually on the market: about $35 million
· Based on all 4.8 billion tokens: about $121 million
Seeing a market cap of just over $20 million and assuming it's a small cap is getting the math wrong.
▍Two alarming large transfers
The first looked like accumulation. At 00:23 on November 1, 188.8 million IDOL were transferred from a Bitget cold wallet to a new address, where they haven't moved since. IDOL closed up 41% that day.
At first, I also thought a whale was withdrawing tokens. But after digging, I found that this new address held 396 BGBTC on Ethereum (Bitget's own wrapped BTC), $40 million in gold tokens, and total assets worth about $155 million. Tracing the funds back three hops led to the same source as Bitget's own hot wallet.
Most likely, Bitget just switched to a different cold wallet. An exchange withdrawal doesn't necessarily mean accumulation—don't forget that.
The second transfer is more noteworthy. At 14:56 on October 31, an address deposited 61.71 million IDOL into Gate in a single transaction. The price was $0.0231 at the time, making it worth about $1.42 million.
The address is called 58bro.eth. This year, media reported that it made 67 trades on Hyperliquid over 8 months, with a 91% win rate, earning about $34 million.
It withdrew these tokens from Gate in four batches between August 1 and 7. Based on the prices at withdrawal, the average was about $0.0195, or roughly $1.2 million. The price later fell to $0.0068, but it didn't move a single token. Only on the fourth day of the rally did it deposit them back. The closing price that day was $0.0176, 24% below the price when it deposited.
I can't determine whether depositing tokens into an exchange means they were sold. But when an address with a strong profit-making track record holds tokens for three months, then deposits them back to an exchange after a huge rally, that's worth noting.
▍Perpetual futures are the real battleground
The action in this rally isn't in spot trading—it's in futures.
· Open interest: 920 million tokens, about $23.1 million. Before the rally, it was only about 500 million tokens, worth $4 million
· This open interest is equivalent to 66% of the 1.39 billion tokens on the market
· 24-hour futures volume is $188 million, more than 5 times the real circulating market cap
· On-chain liquidity is only about $1.34 million
Now look at Binance's Smart Money page (morning of November 2):
· Whales hold 270 million tokens in long positions, with an average entry price of $0.0161 and unrealized gains of about 56%
· Whales hold 46.63 million tokens in short positions, with an average entry price of $0.0202 and unrealized losses of about 24%
Long positions are about 5.8 times the size of short positions, and are sitting on hefty profits. Funding rates have stayed positive; they're currently 0.046% every 4 hours, meaning longs pay about 0.28% a day.
Among retail traders, the share of accounts going long fell from 78% on October 28 to 43% on the 30th. As the price kept rising, some traders kept flipping short. It's now back up to 52%.
Shorts have already been squeezed once in this rally. The risk now runs the other way: profitable longs may exit, while the spot market waiting to absorb their sales is so thin.
▍What has happened historically after this kind of move?
I looked through Binance's history of perpetual futures with no spot listing: tokens that hit a six-month low within 30 days, then rallied more than 3.5x from the low within 5 days. Excluding the rebound after the October 2025 crash, there were 23 instances across 21 tokens.
Counting from the close on the second day after the peak, here's what happened over the next 30 days:
· 56.5% went on to make a new high
· 26.1% doubled
· The median closing price after 30 days was down 14.7%; only 34.8% closed higher
· The median low during the period was down 43.1%
· 30.4% returned to around their starting price
IDOL is now down about 20% from its high, putting it in the shallow-pullback group. There were 11 instances: 81.8% made a new high, 27.3% doubled, but the median closing price after 30 days was down 28.7%, and the median low during the period was down 47.4%.
In other words, a quarter of these tokens do manage to double again, but in most cases they make one more run before falling even further. The sample is small, and the data only goes through September this year, so treat it as a reference point.
▍What to watch next
· On November 11, 100 million tokens unlock, worth about $2.5 million. The tokens have arrived on the same day every month so far. Watch to see if they stay put this time too.
· If those six multisigs start transferring tokens to exchanges, that's the clearest signal. Those 479 million tokens are the biggest overhang in the entire market.
· If futures open interest keeps falling while the price doesn't rise, it means the longs sitting on hefty profits are leaving
· I haven't traced every transfer to identify the biggest buyers and sellers in this rally; I can only confirm the key wallets mentioned above
My view: people use the platform, but the token's value doesn't justify the current unlock rate. I haven't seen the project team sell tokens during this rally, nor have I found evidence of accumulation. Futures drove the rally, and the real selling pressure remains in the hands of four signers.
The project team has 480 million unlocked tokens and hasn't sold them. What do you think they're waiting for? Share your thoughts in the comments.
The above is a summary of on-chain and publicly available data and is not investment advice.