Binance risk resolved, but institutional funds are retreating. Can the market hold steady next week?
I believe $BTC has the conditions for a short-term oversold rebound, and over the next few trading days, the key levels to watch are whether it can hold above $78,500–$80,500.
But for now, this rebound cannot be defined as a trend reversal. $80,000–$82,000 is the real dividing line between bulls and bears.
Technically, as of November 1, BTC was around $78,000. The daily RSI had fallen to around 33, entering oversold territory, while the 4-hour RSI was around 47. The price rebounded from around $76,300, indicating some buying support at lower levels.
The momentum behind the recent string of short-term declines may be weakening. Profit-taking by short sellers and dip-buying could drive a technical recovery.
However, the daily chart remains capped by the EMA20 and EMA50, at around $80,500 and $81,400, respectively. Until the price reclaims this area, the rebound should still be viewed as a technical recovery.
Fund flows are also mixed. On October 30, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million for the day, significantly offsetting the net inflows recorded over the previous four consecutive days. Institutional funds have yet to show a sustained willingness to return, and spot buying has not yet provided a strong enough confirmation signal.
Regarding the Binance security incident, the platform has announced that it has replenished around 95% of the affected assets and begun restoring withdrawals in phases. The risk of systemic payout failures has fallen significantly. But containing the incident does not mean market confidence will recover immediately; fund flows after withdrawals resume and ETF performance still need to be monitored.
On the macro front, Nasdaq technology stocks are pulling back, and the Fed remains cautious in its policy stance. Inflation and employment data will continue to influence rate-cut expectations. If U.S. stocks cannot stabilize, it will remain difficult for BTC to strengthen independently.
My view:
In the short term, watch $78,500–$80,500, with $80,500–$82,000 in focus if that level is breached. If $76,000 is decisively lost, be alert to a further pullback to $72,000–$73,000.
My core view: First look for a short-term oversold rebound; for now, do not confirm a medium-term reversal.
If BTC reclaims and holds above $80,500–$82,000, while ETFs return to consecutive net inflows and spot trading volume improves, I will become more confident in a medium-term trend recovery.
If the rebound comes on declining volume and ETFs continue to see outflows, $80,000–$82,000 will likely remain an important resistance zone.
I believe $BTC has the conditions for a short-term oversold rebound, and over the next few trading days, the key levels to watch are whether it can hold above $78,500–$80,500.
But for now, this rebound cannot be defined as a trend reversal. $80,000–$82,000 is the real dividing line between bulls and bears.
Technically, as of November 1, BTC was around $78,000. The daily RSI had fallen to around 33, entering oversold territory, while the 4-hour RSI was around 47. The price rebounded from around $76,300, indicating some buying support at lower levels.
The momentum behind the recent string of short-term declines may be weakening. Profit-taking by short sellers and dip-buying could drive a technical recovery.
However, the daily chart remains capped by the EMA20 and EMA50, at around $80,500 and $81,400, respectively. Until the price reclaims this area, the rebound should still be viewed as a technical recovery.
Fund flows are also mixed. On October 30, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million for the day, significantly offsetting the net inflows recorded over the previous four consecutive days. Institutional funds have yet to show a sustained willingness to return, and spot buying has not yet provided a strong enough confirmation signal.
Regarding the Binance security incident, the platform has announced that it has replenished around 95% of the affected assets and begun restoring withdrawals in phases. The risk of systemic payout failures has fallen significantly. But containing the incident does not mean market confidence will recover immediately; fund flows after withdrawals resume and ETF performance still need to be monitored.
On the macro front, Nasdaq technology stocks are pulling back, and the Fed remains cautious in its policy stance. Inflation and employment data will continue to influence rate-cut expectations. If U.S. stocks cannot stabilize, it will remain difficult for BTC to strengthen independently.
My view:
In the short term, watch $78,500–$80,500, with $80,500–$82,000 in focus if that level is breached. If $76,000 is decisively lost, be alert to a further pullback to $72,000–$73,000.
My core view: First look for a short-term oversold rebound; for now, do not confirm a medium-term reversal.
If BTC reclaims and holds above $80,500–$82,000, while ETFs return to consecutive net inflows and spot trading volume improves, I will become more confident in a medium-term trend recovery.
If the rebound comes on declining volume and ETFs continue to see outflows, $80,000–$82,000 will likely remain an important resistance zone.
