November opens with Bitcoin stuck trading sideways around $78,000. Binance spot was just above $78,000 on November 1, up about 0.8% over 24 hours. The day's trading range was only $77,300–$78,100—so narrow it looked squeezed.
The technicals are flashing an interesting signal: the Relative Strength Index (RSI, a measure of buying and selling pressure; the lower it is, the harder the selling) came in at 37.7, just one step away from the oversold threshold. Both stochastic indicators (which show whether prices have fallen too far in the short term) have already dropped below 20 and entered oversold territory. In plain English: the bears may have done most of their damage, but the bulls haven't stepped back in yet. The price is pinned below three moving averages at $79,100, $80,900, and $82,000, with a whole band of resistance overhead.
History is on the bulls' side. Bitcoin fell 7.32% in October, making it the fourth-worst October on record. But November has historically been one of its strongest months: from 2010 to 2025, Bitcoin rose in 10 of 16 Novembers, with a median gain of 10.26%. A more distant catalyst is on the way: the next halving is due in early April 2028, and historically, the 400 to 518 days before a halving have often been a launch window. That puts it between November 2026 and February 2027. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has also weighed in, saying Bitcoin bounced after holding its 200-week moving average near $58,500 in late June, and that the next bull market has in fact already begun.
But don't get carried away. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is only at 34, still in fear territory. Support below is around $76,300; if that breaks, the next stop is near $75,000. To the upside, Bitcoin first needs to hold above $78,800 to truly open things up. The Fed just raised rates in September, so liquidity isn't going to provide support. Whether November can turn things around depends entirely on whether investors are willing to buy amid the fear.
One of the worst months of October is behind us. To see whether November, historically one of the strongest months, delivers, just keep an eye on $78,800.
Market analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#比特币 #Crypto Market
The technicals are flashing an interesting signal: the Relative Strength Index (RSI, a measure of buying and selling pressure; the lower it is, the harder the selling) came in at 37.7, just one step away from the oversold threshold. Both stochastic indicators (which show whether prices have fallen too far in the short term) have already dropped below 20 and entered oversold territory. In plain English: the bears may have done most of their damage, but the bulls haven't stepped back in yet. The price is pinned below three moving averages at $79,100, $80,900, and $82,000, with a whole band of resistance overhead.
History is on the bulls' side. Bitcoin fell 7.32% in October, making it the fourth-worst October on record. But November has historically been one of its strongest months: from 2010 to 2025, Bitcoin rose in 10 of 16 Novembers, with a median gain of 10.26%. A more distant catalyst is on the way: the next halving is due in early April 2028, and historically, the 400 to 518 days before a halving have often been a launch window. That puts it between November 2026 and February 2027. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor has also weighed in, saying Bitcoin bounced after holding its 200-week moving average near $58,500 in late June, and that the next bull market has in fact already begun.
But don't get carried away. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is only at 34, still in fear territory. Support below is around $76,300; if that breaks, the next stop is near $75,000. To the upside, Bitcoin first needs to hold above $78,800 to truly open things up. The Fed just raised rates in September, so liquidity isn't going to provide support. Whether November can turn things around depends entirely on whether investors are willing to buy amid the fear.
One of the worst months of October is behind us. To see whether November, historically one of the strongest months, delivers, just keep an eye on $78,800.
Market analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
#比特币 #Crypto Market