Ibrahima runs a small chicken farm in Kaolack. His nephew keeps telling him: “At the next halving, the $BTC is definitely going to skyrocket.” Ibrahima wants to understand before he believes it. What exactly is the halving, and what doesn’t it guarantee? A simple explanation.
⛏️ Where do new bitcoins come from?
• There is no central bank printing bitcoins. New bitcoins are created as rewards for “miners.”
• A miner is a specialized computer that verifies transactions and adds a new block to the chain about every 10 minutes.
• In exchange for this work, they receive a reward in brand-new bitcoins, plus the fees paid by users.
✂️ The halving: the reward gets cut in half
• “Halving” means “cutting in half.” Every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every 4 years, the reward per block is cut in half. It’s written into the code; nobody gets to vote on it.
• 2009: 50 BTC per block.
• 2012: 25 BTC.
• 2016: 12.5 BTC.
• 2020: 6.25 BTC.
• April 2024: 3.125 BTC. This is the current reward.
• The next halving is expected around 2028, when the reward will drop to about 1.56 BTC.
🧮 Why it matters: programmed scarcity
• As the reward is repeatedly halved, the creation of new bitcoins slows to almost zero. The total will never exceed 21 million bitcoins, around the year 2140.
• About 20 million already exist today, more than 95% of the total. The rest will be created little by little.
• A simple analogy: imagine Ibrahima gets 100 chicks a year, then 50, then 25… His new chicks become scarce, even though the farm keeps running.
⚠️ The myth: “halving = guaranteed price increase”
• After past halvings, the price has often risen sharply in the following months. But 4 events are far too few to establish a rule.
• The halving is known years in advance: the market may partly price it in before it happens.
• The price also depends on demand: interest rates, ETFs, regulation, fear, or euphoria. Slowing supply doesn’t help if nobody is buying.
• October 2026, which ended with prices down, is a reminder that no calendar guarantees a price increase.
🏭 The impact on miners
• Overnight, their bitcoin revenue is cut in half. The least efficient miners (expensive electricity, old machines) may become unprofitable.
• Some miners sell more; others diversify. In the long term, transaction fees will need to make up for the lower rewards to keep the network secure.
🔥 What about other cryptocurrencies?
• They don’t all have halvings. $BNB, for example, uses a different mechanism: some tokens are “burned” (permanently destroyed) each quarter, with the goal of reducing the total supply to 100 million.
• Whether it’s a halving or a burn, the idea is the same: limit supply. But neither guarantees a price increase.
✅ Key takeaway
• The halving cuts the creation of new bitcoins in half roughly every 4 years.
• It makes Bitcoin scarcer, but doesn’t promise any gains.
• Be wary of messages like “the halving will make you rich”: they’re often bait used by fake investment groups.
• Only invest what you can afford to lose.
What about you—before reading this, did you think the halving automatically made the price go up? Tell me in the comments 👇
Educational content, not financial advice.