Bitwise raised its ten-year Bitcoin target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million, with its base-case estimate coming in at exactly $1,599,766.
The calculation starts from $83,557 on September 30, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%, up from 28.3%. The bear-case scenario is $130,686, with an annualized rate of 4.6%; the bull-case scenario is $3,667,911, with an annualized rate of 46.0%. It raised its estimate for the store-of-value market from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and for the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. The backdrop is that Bitcoin fell more than 50% from October 2025 to June 2026, with its low dipping below $59,000.
What I find interesting about this upward revision is that it didn't change how much of the market Bitcoin could capture; it simply made the market itself bigger. The farther out the target, the greater the uncertainty, so I treat this only as a set of long-term assumptions, not as a market forecast.
For 2036, are you betting on the $1.6 million base case, or do you think the $130,000 bear case is more realistic?
Follow me, and when Bitwise next updates its long-term assumptions, I'll help you compare them with this version to see whether its market-share assumptions have been quietly changed.
$BTC
The calculation starts from $83,557 on September 30, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.3%, up from 28.3%. The bear-case scenario is $130,686, with an annualized rate of 4.6%; the bull-case scenario is $3,667,911, with an annualized rate of 46.0%. It raised its estimate for the store-of-value market from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, and for the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. The backdrop is that Bitcoin fell more than 50% from October 2025 to June 2026, with its low dipping below $59,000.
What I find interesting about this upward revision is that it didn't change how much of the market Bitcoin could capture; it simply made the market itself bigger. The farther out the target, the greater the uncertainty, so I treat this only as a set of long-term assumptions, not as a market forecast.
For 2036, are you betting on the $1.6 million base case, or do you think the $130,000 bear case is more realistic?
Follow me, and when Bitwise next updates its long-term assumptions, I'll help you compare them with this version to see whether its market-share assumptions have been quietly changed.
$BTC
