Saylor is out here calling a bull market again.
This time, he says the next bull market has already started—not that it’s coming soon, but that it’s already underway.
His reasoning comes down to one thing:
When Bitcoin fell to $58,525 at the end of June, it bounced right around the 200-week moving average.
That’s pretty much what bear-market bottoms have looked like historically: the price dips below the moving average, then recovers, and the bull market takes off from there.
My first reaction after hearing that was: half data, half faith.
The 200-week moving average really is an old benchmark many people use to gauge bear-market bottoms, and Bitcoin did bounce during that June dip.
But from $58,525 to over $77,000 now, the price has also fallen below $80,000 along the way, while the Fear Index is still in the low 30s. None of this looks much like the start of a bull market.
What’s interesting is the timing.
According to the estimates in today’s analysis, the next halving is expected in early April 2028.
Based on the usual pattern, the pre-halving rally window would likely fall between November 2026 and February 2027.
In other words, if Saylor is right, we’ll find out over the next three months. This isn’t just empty talk.
My own take is pretty straightforward:
Saylor is always a bull, so him calling a bull market isn’t unusual. What’s unusual is that this time he’s anchored his call to the moving average and a specific time window.
That gives the market a benchmark that can be proven wrong: if Bitcoin can’t hold its ground or break higher within three months, the call is automatically off the table.
Do you believe him?
Has the bull market already started and you just haven’t felt it yet, or is this another textbook case of bullish hype? 🐂
$BTC
#比特币 #MarketWatch
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.
This time, he says the next bull market has already started—not that it’s coming soon, but that it’s already underway.
His reasoning comes down to one thing:
When Bitcoin fell to $58,525 at the end of June, it bounced right around the 200-week moving average.
That’s pretty much what bear-market bottoms have looked like historically: the price dips below the moving average, then recovers, and the bull market takes off from there.
My first reaction after hearing that was: half data, half faith.
The 200-week moving average really is an old benchmark many people use to gauge bear-market bottoms, and Bitcoin did bounce during that June dip.
But from $58,525 to over $77,000 now, the price has also fallen below $80,000 along the way, while the Fear Index is still in the low 30s. None of this looks much like the start of a bull market.
What’s interesting is the timing.
According to the estimates in today’s analysis, the next halving is expected in early April 2028.
Based on the usual pattern, the pre-halving rally window would likely fall between November 2026 and February 2027.
In other words, if Saylor is right, we’ll find out over the next three months. This isn’t just empty talk.
My own take is pretty straightforward:
Saylor is always a bull, so him calling a bull market isn’t unusual. What’s unusual is that this time he’s anchored his call to the moving average and a specific time window.
That gives the market a benchmark that can be proven wrong: if Bitcoin can’t hold its ground or break higher within three months, the call is automatically off the table.
Do you believe him?
Has the bull market already started and you just haven’t felt it yet, or is this another textbook case of bullish hype? 🐂
$BTC
#比特币 #MarketWatch
Not investment advice. DYOR. Trading involves risk.