Bitcoin at 77,658: Is the bull market over? Here are some hard truths
On October 6 last year, BTC hit an all-time high of 126,080. Today, it's at 77,658—a 38% pullback.
Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in net outflows. More than $430 million in long positions were liquidated over the past week, yet open interest is rising. What does that mean? Leverage hasn't gone away; it's just a new batch of people carrying it.
But here's what I want to say: this downturn didn't start in crypto.
On October 30, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.2%, and Intel plunged 29.6% in a single day after its earnings bombed. Google, Amazon, and Intel all reported results below expectations. For the first time, the AI trade faced serious scrutiny. That same day, oil rose on Middle East tensions while gold fell. That's a classic "liquidity squeeze" combination, not a "narrative collapse."
So don't use the halving cycle to explain everything. BTC in 2026 is already a macro asset. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is much stronger than with the "four-year cycle."
Three numbers to watch on the charts: 76,000—that's the support level tested repeatedly on October 30. 74,800—if it breaks below this level, the next target is the 70,000 round number. 81,915—BTC needs to get back above this level for the structure to count as repaired.
And don't forget this date: November 6, the U.S. jobs report. This data will directly determine whether rates get cut again in December. The market right now isn't afraid of hackers; it's afraid that "money is getting more expensive."
My position strategy is simple: between 75,000 and 82,000, I won't guess the direction—I'll just trade the range. If it breaks below 74,000, I'll reduce my position, not add to it. If it really gets back above 85,000, then the trend is back, and we can talk about going on the attack.
Is the bull market over? I don't know. But I do know that at these levels, it's not about conviction—it's about position management.
On October 6 last year, BTC hit an all-time high of 126,080. Today, it's at 77,658—a 38% pullback.
Yesterday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $643 million in net outflows. More than $430 million in long positions were liquidated over the past week, yet open interest is rising. What does that mean? Leverage hasn't gone away; it's just a new batch of people carrying it.
But here's what I want to say: this downturn didn't start in crypto.
On October 30, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.2%, and Intel plunged 29.6% in a single day after its earnings bombed. Google, Amazon, and Intel all reported results below expectations. For the first time, the AI trade faced serious scrutiny. That same day, oil rose on Middle East tensions while gold fell. That's a classic "liquidity squeeze" combination, not a "narrative collapse."
So don't use the halving cycle to explain everything. BTC in 2026 is already a macro asset. Its correlation with the Nasdaq is much stronger than with the "four-year cycle."
Three numbers to watch on the charts: 76,000—that's the support level tested repeatedly on October 30. 74,800—if it breaks below this level, the next target is the 70,000 round number. 81,915—BTC needs to get back above this level for the structure to count as repaired.
And don't forget this date: November 6, the U.S. jobs report. This data will directly determine whether rates get cut again in December. The market right now isn't afraid of hackers; it's afraid that "money is getting more expensive."
My position strategy is simple: between 75,000 and 82,000, I won't guess the direction—I'll just trade the range. If it breaks below 74,000, I'll reduce my position, not add to it. If it really gets back above 85,000, then the trend is back, and we can talk about going on the attack.
Is the bull market over? I don't know. But I do know that at these levels, it's not about conviction—it's about position management.