#On-Chain Indicator Analysis
BTC: MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far the spot market cap deviates from the network’s true cost basis. It is calculated by dividing (market cap − realized cap) by the cumulative standard deviation since Bitcoin’s genesis, then taking the 7-day moving average. It is useful for assessing where we are in the cycle and identifying extreme valuations.
Current status · Trend Expansion · 7D Z-Score 0.8327
The 7-day Z-Score is 0.8327, above the research threshold of 0.7539 by +0.0788. The raw value for the day is 0.7489, current MVRV is 1.427×, the 180-day peak is 1.028 (2026-09-27), and the BGeometrics validation value is 0.7585 (2026-10-30). The most recent move above the threshold occurred on 2026-08-25, 66 days ago as of 2026-10-30. The remaining days have fallen to zero under both the classic 42-day average across the first three cycles and the extended 66-day average that includes the 140-day sample from 2022.
Historical reference: After crossing above the threshold in the 2012, 2016, and 2019 cycles, the countdowns were 32, 49, and 44 days, respectively, while the 2022 cycle lasted 140 days. The samples differ significantly, so both windows are shown side by side; small-sample statistics should not be treated as a definitive market top. Ranges: <0 Cost Discount, 0–0.7539 Recovery and Accumulation, 0.7539–3 Trend Expansion, ≥7 Extreme Overheating. Cycle day counts are for research purposes only; they do not predict prices and are not investment advice.
【BTC Short-Term Snapshot】
Binance BTCUSDT is trading at around 77,540 USDT, nearly flat over 24 hours (around +0.05%), consolidating intraday between approximately 76,326 and 78,110.
Macro: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4% at its 10/28 meeting (10–2 vote, with two members favoring a rate hike). In the short term, pricing remains affected by the “pause, but hawkish” stance.
Flows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million on 10/30 (Farside), their largest single-day redemption since June. Weekly and October-to-date flows also turned negative.
Short-term outlook: Price is consolidating above around 76,000. Resistance is around 78,000–81,000; watch for support near the intraday low. For discussion only; not investment advice.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
BTC: MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures how far the spot market cap deviates from the network’s true cost basis. It is calculated by dividing (market cap − realized cap) by the cumulative standard deviation since Bitcoin’s genesis, then taking the 7-day moving average. It is useful for assessing where we are in the cycle and identifying extreme valuations.
Current status · Trend Expansion · 7D Z-Score 0.8327
The 7-day Z-Score is 0.8327, above the research threshold of 0.7539 by +0.0788. The raw value for the day is 0.7489, current MVRV is 1.427×, the 180-day peak is 1.028 (2026-09-27), and the BGeometrics validation value is 0.7585 (2026-10-30). The most recent move above the threshold occurred on 2026-08-25, 66 days ago as of 2026-10-30. The remaining days have fallen to zero under both the classic 42-day average across the first three cycles and the extended 66-day average that includes the 140-day sample from 2022.
Historical reference: After crossing above the threshold in the 2012, 2016, and 2019 cycles, the countdowns were 32, 49, and 44 days, respectively, while the 2022 cycle lasted 140 days. The samples differ significantly, so both windows are shown side by side; small-sample statistics should not be treated as a definitive market top. Ranges: <0 Cost Discount, 0–0.7539 Recovery and Accumulation, 0.7539–3 Trend Expansion, ≥7 Extreme Overheating. Cycle day counts are for research purposes only; they do not predict prices and are not investment advice.
【BTC Short-Term Snapshot】
Binance BTCUSDT is trading at around 77,540 USDT, nearly flat over 24 hours (around +0.05%), consolidating intraday between approximately 76,326 and 78,110.
Macro: The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75%–4% at its 10/28 meeting (10–2 vote, with two members favoring a rate hike). In the short term, pricing remains affected by the “pause, but hawkish” stance.
Flows: U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of around $643 million on 10/30 (Farside), their largest single-day redemption since June. Weekly and October-to-date flows also turned negative.
Short-term outlook: Price is consolidating above around 76,000. Resistance is around 78,000–81,000; watch for support near the intraday low. For discussion only; not investment advice.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators
Portal
https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/
Understand market cycles like a professional analyst
$BTC
