Last night, the 7 p.m. hourly candle plunged from 1.53 to 1.33, with a low of 1.25 and about $12.2 million in volume. Over the past day, $BTW perpetuals fell about 22% on roughly $95 million in volume, ranging from a high of 1.56 to a low of 1.10. The price dropped nearly 30%, but open interest only moved from about 18.1 million tokens to 16.62 million, down roughly 8%. A washout should show a clear drop in positions; this drop doesn’t come close.
Let’s break down the structure. Before the flash crash, about 39% of retail accounts were long. That rose to 43% after the crash and is now around 45%—people are buying the dip. Whales cut their long positions from 48.5% to 44.6% during the crash, and they’re still at around 46% now; positioning remains skewed bearish and hasn’t flipped. The funding rate went from -0.025% at noon to -0.043% at 4 p.m. Shorts are paying, but the price hasn’t reversed—it’s just grinding between 1.10 and 1.17. Today’s 10 a.m. hourly candle surged from 1.12 to 1.30 on about $10.5 million in volume, then plunged back to 1.14. For now, treat that bounce as noise.
The 1-hour RSI is around 38. The 12-period moving average is at 1.17, the 50-period moving average at 1.35, and the lower Bollinger Band at 1.09. The MACD histogram has just turned positive, at about 0.013, and ATR is around 6.2%. Price is grinding just below the 12-period moving average; that doesn’t confirm a floor.
I wrote about $Q at noon: a washout would mean long accounts dropping back to 60% and open interest shrinking below 300 million tokens. Neither has happened yet. Applying the same yardstick to $BTW , I’m treating the action around 1.14 as unfinished dip-buying after the flash crash, not as a floor. Until the share of retail long accounts falls back below 40% and open interest sinks further, below 15.5 million tokens, keep an eye on the 1.17 12-period moving average for any bounce. If price can’t hold above it, it’s still looking at 1.10. I’m staying out of BTW for now.
$BTW #合约数据 #Positioning structure
Let’s break down the structure. Before the flash crash, about 39% of retail accounts were long. That rose to 43% after the crash and is now around 45%—people are buying the dip. Whales cut their long positions from 48.5% to 44.6% during the crash, and they’re still at around 46% now; positioning remains skewed bearish and hasn’t flipped. The funding rate went from -0.025% at noon to -0.043% at 4 p.m. Shorts are paying, but the price hasn’t reversed—it’s just grinding between 1.10 and 1.17. Today’s 10 a.m. hourly candle surged from 1.12 to 1.30 on about $10.5 million in volume, then plunged back to 1.14. For now, treat that bounce as noise.
The 1-hour RSI is around 38. The 12-period moving average is at 1.17, the 50-period moving average at 1.35, and the lower Bollinger Band at 1.09. The MACD histogram has just turned positive, at about 0.013, and ATR is around 6.2%. Price is grinding just below the 12-period moving average; that doesn’t confirm a floor.
I wrote about $Q at noon: a washout would mean long accounts dropping back to 60% and open interest shrinking below 300 million tokens. Neither has happened yet. Applying the same yardstick to $BTW , I’m treating the action around 1.14 as unfinished dip-buying after the flash crash, not as a floor. Until the share of retail long accounts falls back below 40% and open interest sinks further, below 15.5 million tokens, keep an eye on the 1.17 12-period moving average for any bounce. If price can’t hold above it, it’s still looking at 1.10. I’m staying out of BTW for now.
$BTW #合约数据 #Positioning structure
