This downturn actually began on October 22.
I took another look today at the Bitcoin ETF outflows and found that Bitcoin saw net outflows of 635M on October 22.
Over the following few days, it bounced back slightly and fluctuated, but the net inflows still weren’t enough to cover the short positions from October 22.
Then, on October 30 alone,
the black swan event of Binance being hacked
triggered another 645M in ETF outflows.
In other words,
large investors are already showing signs of fleeing.
If Bitcoin’s sharp decline were solely due to Binance being hacked,
then given the current weakness in China’s A-shares and U.S. stocks,
the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections,
the uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-Iran war,
the seemingly unstoppable plunge in gold and other precious metals,
and rising expectations of interest rate hikes,
Bitcoin’s decline would still make perfect sense.
The black swan hack merely brought the downturn forward
and made it a little steeper and faster.
I’ve always believed that
even if Binance hadn’t been hacked,
Bitcoin would have fallen this Friday along with the U.S. stock indexes.
I’ve been reading a lot of books lately,
especially Livermore’s ideas, which he shared with us over 100 years ago:
news is always an excuse,
at most, it’s just an added factor—not the main reason.
The main reason is the broader trend!
I took another look today at the Bitcoin ETF outflows and found that Bitcoin saw net outflows of 635M on October 22.
Over the following few days, it bounced back slightly and fluctuated, but the net inflows still weren’t enough to cover the short positions from October 22.
Then, on October 30 alone,
the black swan event of Binance being hacked
triggered another 645M in ETF outflows.
In other words,
large investors are already showing signs of fleeing.
If Bitcoin’s sharp decline were solely due to Binance being hacked,
then given the current weakness in China’s A-shares and U.S. stocks,
the uncertainty surrounding the midterm elections,
the uncertainty surrounding a U.S.-Iran war,
the seemingly unstoppable plunge in gold and other precious metals,
and rising expectations of interest rate hikes,
Bitcoin’s decline would still make perfect sense.
The black swan hack merely brought the downturn forward
and made it a little steeper and faster.
I’ve always believed that
even if Binance hadn’t been hacked,
Bitcoin would have fallen this Friday along with the U.S. stock indexes.
I’ve been reading a lot of books lately,
especially Livermore’s ideas, which he shared with us over 100 years ago:
news is always an excuse,
at most, it’s just an added factor—not the main reason.
The main reason is the broader trend!
