During the half-day when open interest ballooned from 529 million to 845 million, the $AKE contract plunged from around 0.019 through 0.0108—down roughly 35% in the past 24 hours, with about $87 million in volume. The liquidation story sounds pretty convincing. But while the price was cut in half, new positions were piling up at the floor, not being closed out.
Break down the sell-off. The 1 a.m. candle dropped from 0.0187 to 0.0173, with about $14 million in volume; at 2 a.m. it kept falling to 0.0143, briefly touching a low of 0.0134, with about $23.9 million in volume for that hour. Those two hourly candles saw roughly $38 million in combined selling pressure, yet open interest rose from 529 million to 619 million. The price then ground down to a midday low of 0.0108. Open interest was around 705 million at 8 a.m., 796 million at 11 a.m., and had ballooned to about 844 million by 1 p.m. It is now around 845 million contracts, up 60% from the early hours. Forced long liquidations plus new short entries are making the positioning structure heavier, not clearing it out.
Retail accounts are still about 55% long, and large accounts are about 57% long; but the proportion of large-account positions that are long has actually dropped from around 52% overnight to 49.5%, tilting slightly bearish. At noon, the funding rate turned negative at -0.01%, so shorts started paying longs a little to hold their positions—but open interest didn’t shrink along with it, suggesting more traders are still piling in at the floor rather than clearing out. The taker buy/sell ratio mostly stayed between 0.83 and 0.94 from 8 a.m. to noon, with sellers in control. Whoever keeps opening new positions at lower prices is making the positioning structure behind this sell-off heavier and heavier.
The one-hour RSI is around 29.5; the 12-period moving average is 0.0131 and the 50-period moving average is 0.0174. Price is below the lower Keltner band at 0.0129, and ATR is around 7.9%. The MACD histogram is still negative. Treat the bounce from 0.0108 to 0.0123 as noise from a rebound along the lower band, not as a signal that the floor is in and the trend has turned bullish.
I’m treating the move up to 0.0123 as a rebound during the sell-off and position-building phase, not as a liquidation bottom. Until open interest falls back below 650 million contracts and the share of retail accounts going long drops below 50%, watch the 12-period moving average at 0.0131 as resistance on any rebound. If price can’t hold above it, 0.0108 is back in view. I’m staying on the sidelines for this stretch of AKE.
$AKE #合约数据 #OpenInterestExpansion
Break down the sell-off. The 1 a.m. candle dropped from 0.0187 to 0.0173, with about $14 million in volume; at 2 a.m. it kept falling to 0.0143, briefly touching a low of 0.0134, with about $23.9 million in volume for that hour. Those two hourly candles saw roughly $38 million in combined selling pressure, yet open interest rose from 529 million to 619 million. The price then ground down to a midday low of 0.0108. Open interest was around 705 million at 8 a.m., 796 million at 11 a.m., and had ballooned to about 844 million by 1 p.m. It is now around 845 million contracts, up 60% from the early hours. Forced long liquidations plus new short entries are making the positioning structure heavier, not clearing it out.
Retail accounts are still about 55% long, and large accounts are about 57% long; but the proportion of large-account positions that are long has actually dropped from around 52% overnight to 49.5%, tilting slightly bearish. At noon, the funding rate turned negative at -0.01%, so shorts started paying longs a little to hold their positions—but open interest didn’t shrink along with it, suggesting more traders are still piling in at the floor rather than clearing out. The taker buy/sell ratio mostly stayed between 0.83 and 0.94 from 8 a.m. to noon, with sellers in control. Whoever keeps opening new positions at lower prices is making the positioning structure behind this sell-off heavier and heavier.
The one-hour RSI is around 29.5; the 12-period moving average is 0.0131 and the 50-period moving average is 0.0174. Price is below the lower Keltner band at 0.0129, and ATR is around 7.9%. The MACD histogram is still negative. Treat the bounce from 0.0108 to 0.0123 as noise from a rebound along the lower band, not as a signal that the floor is in and the trend has turned bullish.
I’m treating the move up to 0.0123 as a rebound during the sell-off and position-building phase, not as a liquidation bottom. Until open interest falls back below 650 million contracts and the share of retail accounts going long drops below 50%, watch the 12-period moving average at 0.0131 as resistance on any rebound. If price can’t hold above it, 0.0108 is back in view. I’m staying on the sidelines for this stretch of AKE.
$AKE #合约数据 #OpenInterestExpansion
