At 8:00, it was still hovering around 0.049; three hours later, the $Q contract plunged through 0.0262—down about 50% over the past day, with roughly $216 million in volume, while the high was still stuck at 0.064. The liquidation narrative sounds pretty convincing. But open interest is moving in the exact opposite direction: at 9:00 it first fell to around 262 million coins, at 10:00 it recovered to 274 million, at 11:00 it surged to 346 million, the noon hourly snapshot showed around 364 million, and now it has piled back up to about 385 million coins. As the price was cut in half, new positions piled in at the bottom instead of pulling out.
Breaking down those sell-off candles makes it clearer. The 8:00 candle plunged from 0.049 through 0.041, closing around 0.043, on roughly $11 million in volume; at 9:00, it kept dropping to 0.036 on about $14 million; at 10:00, it touched 0.028 on around $20.5 million; at 11:00, it spiked down to a low of 0.0262, with about $24.7 million in volume in that hour alone. The four hourly candles saw roughly $70 million in selling, yet open interest started rebuilding after hitting its low at 9:00.
The percentage of retail accounts long rose from around 65% overnight to 69.5%, and the percentage of whale accounts long climbed from 65% to 72%; meanwhile, the share of whale positions that were long fell from 61% to 56%. It’s accounts that are catching the falling knife, while positions are being reduced. At noon, the funding rate plunged straight to negative 2.00%—longs are paying shorts an extreme premium. Anyone brave enough to add at the bottom has to pay that first.
The one-hour RSI is around 29, ATR is around 15%, and price is below the lower Bollinger Band at 0.030 and the lower Keltner Channel at 0.033. The 12-period moving average is still at 0.039, and the 50-period moving average is around 0.047. The MACD histogram continues to weaken, and volatility has expanded. Looking back at the conditions I wrote about on 10/29 (long accounts falling back to 60%, open interest dropping back to 220 million) — neither has happened yet; the falling-knife crowd is getting more packed instead.
I’m still treating this move around 0.028 as an ongoing falling-knife catch, not a final washout low. Until the percentage of retail accounts long falls back below 60% and open interest shrinks below 300 million coins, I’ll first watch whether the rebound can turn that 0.033 lower Keltner Channel into support. If it can’t hold, 0.026 is still in play. I’m staying on the sidelines for this stretch of Q.
$Q #合约数据 #CatchingTheFallingKnife
Breaking down those sell-off candles makes it clearer. The 8:00 candle plunged from 0.049 through 0.041, closing around 0.043, on roughly $11 million in volume; at 9:00, it kept dropping to 0.036 on about $14 million; at 10:00, it touched 0.028 on around $20.5 million; at 11:00, it spiked down to a low of 0.0262, with about $24.7 million in volume in that hour alone. The four hourly candles saw roughly $70 million in selling, yet open interest started rebuilding after hitting its low at 9:00.
The percentage of retail accounts long rose from around 65% overnight to 69.5%, and the percentage of whale accounts long climbed from 65% to 72%; meanwhile, the share of whale positions that were long fell from 61% to 56%. It’s accounts that are catching the falling knife, while positions are being reduced. At noon, the funding rate plunged straight to negative 2.00%—longs are paying shorts an extreme premium. Anyone brave enough to add at the bottom has to pay that first.
The one-hour RSI is around 29, ATR is around 15%, and price is below the lower Bollinger Band at 0.030 and the lower Keltner Channel at 0.033. The 12-period moving average is still at 0.039, and the 50-period moving average is around 0.047. The MACD histogram continues to weaken, and volatility has expanded. Looking back at the conditions I wrote about on 10/29 (long accounts falling back to 60%, open interest dropping back to 220 million) — neither has happened yet; the falling-knife crowd is getting more packed instead.
I’m still treating this move around 0.028 as an ongoing falling-knife catch, not a final washout low. Until the percentage of retail accounts long falls back below 60% and open interest shrinks below 300 million coins, I’ll first watch whether the rebound can turn that 0.033 lower Keltner Channel into support. If it can’t hold, 0.026 is still in play. I’m staying on the sidelines for this stretch of Q.
$Q #合约数据 #CatchingTheFallingKnife
