4.704%. On the day it landed, the two-year Treasury yield closed here, down more than four basis points; the ten-year climbed to 5.015%. One moved down, the other up, while rates themselves didn’t budge by a single basis point. $MSFTB
What moved was something else. The rate range stayed at 3.75% to 4%. The decision passed 10–2, with the two dissenting votes calling for a 25-basis-point hike. The chair shut the door on any set path: don’t presume an outcome, and unless something really goes wrong, don’t expect him to map out a course in advance. Guidance should be limited and constrained. $AMZNB
Each firm has to work out the path for itself. As soon as the decision came out, the odds of a December hike were pushed to 78%, with another estimate putting them at 85%. But the statement didn’t say which numbers would trigger the next move; the reaction-function column was left blank. One strategist’s assessment was a string of metaphors: looking through a window, interrogating inflation, a family squabble—in other words, it said nothing. $BTC
So the two ends moving in opposite directions makes sense. The short end prices in the pause happening now; the long end reflects whether there will be more hikes later. September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, above the expected 3.6% and the highest since May. Core PCE rose from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, moving another step further from 2%.
They hit pause today; next year’s box is still empty.
Money shifted along with it. London spot gold fell $41 that day to $4,026; spot silver dropped $1.22 to $52.75. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed on commodities.
The windows for changing rates are getting fewer. The new schedule starts next autumn: in 2027, one of the eight meetings will have neither a vote nor a statement; in 2028, there will be two such meetings. That leaves six meetings for actually setting rates, down from eight. This eight-meeting rule has been unchanged since 1981.
These are personal views, not investment advice. You are responsible for your own gains and losses.
#FOMC会议
What moved was something else. The rate range stayed at 3.75% to 4%. The decision passed 10–2, with the two dissenting votes calling for a 25-basis-point hike. The chair shut the door on any set path: don’t presume an outcome, and unless something really goes wrong, don’t expect him to map out a course in advance. Guidance should be limited and constrained. $AMZNB
Each firm has to work out the path for itself. As soon as the decision came out, the odds of a December hike were pushed to 78%, with another estimate putting them at 85%. But the statement didn’t say which numbers would trigger the next move; the reaction-function column was left blank. One strategist’s assessment was a string of metaphors: looking through a window, interrogating inflation, a family squabble—in other words, it said nothing. $BTC
So the two ends moving in opposite directions makes sense. The short end prices in the pause happening now; the long end reflects whether there will be more hikes later. September CPI was up 3.7% year over year, above the expected 3.6% and the highest since May. Core PCE rose from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, moving another step further from 2%.
They hit pause today; next year’s box is still empty.
Money shifted along with it. London spot gold fell $41 that day to $4,026; spot silver dropped $1.22 to $52.75. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields weighed on commodities.
The windows for changing rates are getting fewer. The new schedule starts next autumn: in 2027, one of the eight meetings will have neither a vote nor a statement; in 2028, there will be two such meetings. That leaves six meetings for actually setting rates, down from eight. This eight-meeting rule has been unchanged since 1981.
These are personal views, not investment advice. You are responsible for your own gains and losses.
#FOMC会议
