Today, Binance suffered a hack resulting in losses of around $6.3 billion, while bitcoin:native only fell a little over 3%, showing a degree of resilience. But I’ve seen quite a few people calling this a buying opportunity, saying we’re at the start of a bull market and there’s no need to worry. Some are even directly comparing it to the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis. I think that comparison is misguided.
First, after the SVB crisis in 2023, the Fed introduced the BTFP emergency liquidity facility, and regulators stepped in to protect depositors. Although there were no immediate rate cuts at the time, the banking crisis changed market expectations for future monetary policy and liquidity.
The macroeconomic environment today is completely different. Inflation remains elevated, oil prices are still high, and the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, with further rate hikes still a possibility. Not to mention the sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks recently—for example, $INTC reported disastrous earnings, and institutions are facing pressure to de-gross.
Second, the current structure of BTC futures open interest can hardly be called particularly healthy. The Binance BTCUSDT account long/short ratio has reached 2.49, meaning that around 71% of futures accounts are net long. The long/short ratio among large traders is also at 1.73, and funding rates remain positive.
Although OI has declined somewhat, the market clearly hasn’t shown signs of a large-scale capitulation by bulls or a complete flush-out of leverage. It’s possible BTC is nearing a short-term bottom, and I acknowledge that it has shown some resilience in the face of major negative news this time. But as a trend trader who prefers to wait for confirmation, I’d rather wait for price action, positioning, and fund flows to align before declaring the bull market back on.
I’m holding some BTC spot that I bought at 66–70K. My point here is that if you’re going to use leverage on bitcoin:native, you need to be cautious. Ideally, don’t use leverage at all; if you do, make sure you set a stop-loss.
First, after the SVB crisis in 2023, the Fed introduced the BTFP emergency liquidity facility, and regulators stepped in to protect depositors. Although there were no immediate rate cuts at the time, the banking crisis changed market expectations for future monetary policy and liquidity.
The macroeconomic environment today is completely different. Inflation remains elevated, oil prices are still high, and the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach, with further rate hikes still a possibility. Not to mention the sharp correction in U.S. tech stocks recently—for example, $INTC reported disastrous earnings, and institutions are facing pressure to de-gross.
Second, the current structure of BTC futures open interest can hardly be called particularly healthy. The Binance BTCUSDT account long/short ratio has reached 2.49, meaning that around 71% of futures accounts are net long. The long/short ratio among large traders is also at 1.73, and funding rates remain positive.
Although OI has declined somewhat, the market clearly hasn’t shown signs of a large-scale capitulation by bulls or a complete flush-out of leverage. It’s possible BTC is nearing a short-term bottom, and I acknowledge that it has shown some resilience in the face of major negative news this time. But as a trend trader who prefers to wait for confirmation, I’d rather wait for price action, positioning, and fund flows to align before declaring the bull market back on.
I’m holding some BTC spot that I bought at 66–70K. My point here is that if you’re going to use leverage on bitcoin:native, you need to be cautious. Ideally, don’t use leverage at all; if you do, make sure you set a stop-loss.