Coinbase reported $719 million in profit on paper, but only about $78 million came from actual business operations—most of the profit in its Q3 report came from the appreciation of the crypto it holds.

After excluding unrealized gains on its crypto holdings, adjusted net income was only about $78 million; investment-related crypto gains alone came to about $715 million.
Transaction revenue was $590 million, down 43% year over year. Total revenue was $1.22 billion, down 35% and slightly below market expectations.
Subscription and services revenue accounted for 49% of net revenue, while an average of $22 billion in USDC sat on the platform—a record high.
After the earnings report came out, the stock fell about 3.3% after hours.

The takeaway: exchanges are shifting from transaction fees to stablecoin interest and subscriptions as their bread and butter. Cooling retail trading is a more telling signal than the $700 million profit figure.

Which way are you betting: will Coinbase's transaction revenue keep shrinking next quarter, or climb back above $700 million?

Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice!

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